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The oil conundrum gets worse

27 July4 min read
Oil pressure continues - collage of images

It's been a busy few days for anyone who likes their oil cheap and their chokepoints unmolested, so shall we get you up to speed? Let's kick off in...

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  1. 01

    INDONESIA

    Central banker bails.

    There’s a new mystery in Jakarta after Perry Warjiyo, the central bank governor, unexpectedly stepped down early, even missing the media briefing where his departure was announced. (Bloomberg $) Comment: Reports of a health issue aside, his resignation might have something to do with the rupiah’s relentless slide, market jitters at Prabowo’s spending and power concentration, or all of the above. It comes while Jakarta is already reeling at the discovery of 74kg in gold plus $19M in cash at the home of Indonesia’s erstwhile anti-corruption chief, hinting at elite fracturing and instability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

  2. 02

    VENEZUELA

    Ditch the ICC.

    Caracas has declared its intention to withdraw as a member of the International Criminal Court. (RFI)

  3. 03

    GERMANY

    Terrorist attack.

    Police have shot and killed 21-year-old Abdul Ballout after he ploughed a van through a Berlin Pride event then stabbed attendees, leaving one dead and at least 29 others injured. Authorities say it was likely another Islamist terrorist attack. (DW)Comment: Following the pattern of targeting visible symbols of free societies for maximum symbolic and political impact, it’ll raise familiar questions around monitoring (he was a known ISIS-sympathiser), deradicalisation, and integration.

  4. 04

    NORTH KOREA

    More soldiers to Russia?

    Ukraine’s Zelensky is warning Russia has requested another 30,000 North Korean troops to help his halting invasion of Ukraine. That’s more than double Pyongyang’s first ‘shipment’. (Politico)

  5. 05

    INDIA

    Cockroaches get their first win.

    Education minister Dharmendra Pradhan has finally resigned after weeks of sustained pressure by a youth-led movement calling itself the ‘Cockroach Janta Party’, initially outraged over a big exam leak scandal. (Al Jazeera)Comment: It’s a cosmetic concession from PM Modi, who’s appointed another loyalist already juggling renewable energy and consumer affairs portfolios. But cosmetic or not, a cabinet scalp is a real win for a meme-born youth movement folks were dismissing only weeks ago. The Cockroaches have halted protests for now, but surely they smell a bit of blood in the political water.

  6. 06

    BRAZIL

    Regional election.

    Argentina’s Milei has appeared in Brazil to campaign alongside Flavio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator and son of a jailed ex-president, running to oust the left-leaning President Lula in Brazil’s October elections. Lula has recalled his ambassador to Argentina in protest at some of Milei’s lines. (BAT)

  7. 07

    UGANDA

    Latecomer.

    Ugandan diplomat ​and political figure Olara Otunnu has now become the seventh candidate seeking to replace António Guterres as UN Secretary-General, just days before the UN Security Council’s first straw poll is due this week. (AfricaNews)Comment: He’s a former UN under-secretary-general, but why such a late Hail Mary, particularly given the traditional expectation that Guterres’s successor should come from Latin America? It could just be to signal dissatisfaction at Africa’s underrepresentation, or he might be trying to pull a Stephen Bradbury (the Aussie ice-skater who won gold after everyone else fell over). But if this week’s first straw poll produces no clear frontrunner, expect more dark horses to emerge.

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