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Is Nicaragua next?

22 July4 min read
Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua, and no more elections

Nicaragua's leftist dictator, Daniel Ortega (80) , has traditionally clung to power with a little help from cheap Venezuelan oil and sharp Cuban spooks.

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Latest news
  1. 01

    UKRAINE

    Top military shakeup.

    President Zelensky has fired his top military commander (Syrskyi) after days of protests demanding the reinstatement of Syrskyi’s popular, young, and tech-savvy rival (Fedorov) as defence minister. Ukraine’s new top general is now 43-year-old Mykhailo Drapatyi, a decorated battlefield leader. (AP)Comment: It’s a risky time for command churn (Putin is rumoured to be planning another big mobilisation), but Zelensky will hope the changes allow a refocus away from palace intrigue and back on Putin’s war.

  2. 02

    UNITED STATES

    AI is committing crimes.

    OpenAI has revealed that two of its models (GPT 5.6 Sol and another unreleased) escaped its test sandbox and hacked AI platform Hugging Face autonomously to cheat on an internal test. Hugging Face then had to resort to one of China’s AI models to defend itself, because the safety guardrails around US frontier systems limited their effectiveness! (OpenAI)Comment: We wrote about China’s ascendant AI models yesterday.

  3. 03

    KAZAKHSTAN

    Oil stopper.

    Kazakhstan has now halted its oil flow out through its main export terminal in Russia, with storage there now at capacity as tankers steer clear to avoid persistent Ukrainian drone attacks. (Bloomberg $) Comment: Markets really don’t need this halt to ~80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, which in turn make up ~2% of global supply. With most of Kazakhstan’s diversification options politically and/or technically difficult, Astana is left for now to gripe about becoming collateral damage.

  4. 04

    RUSSIA

    Patel does Moscow.

    FBI boss Kash Patel is reportedly planning a trip to Russia later this year, though the agenda isn’t yet clear. (Politico)Comment: FBI-FSB ties are now limited to a few shared priorities like counter-terrorism, which don’t really need an FBI boss to visit. Even a prisoner swap would ordinarily run via other channels. Given Patel’s history (a sceptic of past Russia probes) and possible timing (ahead of US midterms), things could get intriguing.

  5. 05

    CHINA

    Helium ban.

    China has temporarily halted helium exports, citing a need to protect domestic supplies amid the Hormuz LNG squeeze. Helium is a key input for industrial processes like chipmaking and welding. (SCMP)Comment: This will be particularly painful in Europe, which moved to end helium imports from Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

  6. 06

    MEXICO

    Sinaloa co-founder gets life.

    Cartel co-founder Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada just got life in a US prison plus a $15B forfeiture order for his role running the vast drug empire. (Al Jazeera)

  7. 07

    SOUTH AFRICA

    Loan secured.

    The World Bank has signed off on a $1.5B loan towards the modernisation of South Africa’s infrastructure, including across water, sanitation, freight, and ⁠electricity. (Reuters)

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