Iran's survivors take over

In our line of work, when someone suddenly disappears for a few months, it's because they're 'offline' for secret-squirrel stuff, or maybe they went on Survivor. Weirdly, the Survivor cameo tends to be a better-kept secret.

But when Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei suddenly disappeared months ago amid the US-Israeli war, speculation was less 'OMG maybe he went on Love is Blind', and more okay maybe he's dead, disfigured, or debilitated.

That all culminated in last week's Israeli media reports that maybe Mojtaba is actually in an "extremely critical condition", fanning worries among Iran's elites.

And that's when things got even more intriguing: Iran's semi-official Mehr outlet dropped a short clip showing Mojtaba himself relaxing on a carpet in his signature black turban and light grey robe, bantering with some pals. The clip contains no audio, but maybe they were marvelling at how Trinity and Bryce won Love Island Season 8? Or perhaps sharing their favourite fatwas, like the one that still labels the minority Baha'i faith "perverse"?

Anyway, we've got Mojtaba’s proof of life!

Hah, no. The clip contains no date or location, nor even a pink birthday cake with the date in icing. Rather, some say it looks similar to earlier pre-war teaching footage.

But either way, the regime wasn't just using this clip to dunk on Israeli media. Rather, it was preparing the ground for something even more intriguing — new decrees in Mojtaba's name (who is now definitely alive and fine everyone) filling six of the most powerful military posts left vacant by the war.

So shall we take a quick look at those appointments and what they might reveal?

1. Vahidi – Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander-in-chief

This is the guy long rumoured to be actually in charge, even if the parliamentary speaker (Ghalibaf) has generally been more visible.

Argentina and others accuse him of ordering the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires that left 85 dead, and the decree now tasks him with maximum deterrence and "powerful offensive operations"...

2. Abdollahi – Armed Forces chief of staff

Remember Iran effectively has two parallel militaries: one is the above all-powerful IRGC to safeguard the 1979 Islamic Revolution, answering direct to the supreme leader. The other is the regular military (Artesh).

This guy used to run a body that coordinated the two, so with him now running the broader command structure, it could be a way to quell earlier rumours that maybe the regular army was uncomfortable with the regime’s protest massacres.

3. Azmaei – IRGC Navy commander

Yes they still have a navy — as we flagged early on, it's tough to fry an asymmetrical capability like hundreds of fast boats hiding in random sheds along a coastline that stretches the same distance as from London to Athens.

Anyway, this guy has long run the IRGC's 5th Region around Hormuz, and has been the regular public face of Iranian vessel seizures, hence his US sanctions since 2019. With Azmaei now in charge, Hormuz is a priority, and it ain't re-opening.

4. Taeb – Basij commander

Iran's Basij is the big hard-line, civilian militia the regime uses to beat up protestors and help enforce dress rules on women etc.

Taeb is actually the cleric who ran IRGC intelligence for ages until Israeli intelligence pantsed him so many times, he actually got ousted in 2022. His return now as Basij boss is less about the power of personal growth or second chances, and more about a hard-line loyalist running the domestic repression that keeps this regime in power.

Then for #5 (IRGC deputy) and #6 (Armed Forces deputy), you've got two veteran loyalists that really signal continuity and more of that IRGC-military integration.

So okay, cool LinkedIn updates, but the overall message here?

To us, it looks like Iran’s hard-line IRGC survivors are maximising control, doubling down on internal repression, and signalling zero interest in external compromise.