Daily flyovers
Latest news for 18 August 2026
Quick hits of consequential news from all corners of the world.
- 01
OMAN
Trump threatens Oman.
President Trump has threatened to bomb Oman (the long-standing US security partner opposite Iran) if it “gets in the way” of an Iran deal. Trump later dialled down the rhetoric, insisting he’s not yet lost patience with Muscat, which is negotiating with Tehran to reopen Hormuz. Meanwhile, the fragile 60-day US-Iran ceasefire has now formally lapsed. (BBC)
Comment: Trump presumably feels he’s lost control of this backchannel, with Iran and Oman now reportedly working on a new transit map that’d see ships entering Hormuz via the Iranian side and exiting via the Omani side. But once you treat Oman’s neutrality as obstruction (Iran has hit it too), the backchannel tends to close. Meanwhile, each cycle of US threats risks becoming another crack in US credibility, whether for friend or foe.
- 02
MEXICO
Bond cartel settles.
The Mexican banking affiliates of BoA, Santander, BBVA, Citi, Deutsche, and HSBC have agreed to pay a cool $86M to settle a long-running US lawsuit over rigging (via private chatrooms) the market for Mexican government bonds. Everyone denies wrongdoing. (Mexico Business News)
Comment: Mexico’s own antitrust probe kicked the whole thing off years ago, before US pension funds (the main plaintiffs) finished it off. JPMorgan and Barclays settled back in 2020.
- 03
VIETNAM
Pixel exits China.
Google has told suppliers it’ll stop making all Pixel smartphones, watches, and earbuds in China from 2027, shifting to Vietnam and India. (Nikkei)
Comment: Google’s hardware division has been quietly shifting production south for years, but this marks the official sunset of the tech giant’s ‘Made in China’ pipeline. It’s now a familiar US Big Tech de-risking move amid China tensions, though will come with its own risks: Vietnam’s electrical grid, for example, is now struggling to meet demand.
- 04
GREECE
Maritime friction rebooted.
The Greek foreign ministry has slammed Turkey’s establishment of two national marine parks which — according to Athens — infringe on Greece’s continental shelf. (The National Herald)
Comment: This is classic Aegean shadow-boxing rather than genuine concern for the seas: Turkey’s Erdogan is using environmentalism to poke back after Greece announced its own marine parks last year. Reminder: these two neighbours are technically allies, but that ‘technically’ seems to be doing some awfully heavy lifting lately.
- 05
CANADA
Bracing for 50% tariffs.
The Canadians are bracing for a fresh round of 50% US tariffs due tomorrow (Wed) on a range of items from cement to hockey gear. (CBC)
Comment: There’s a bewildering array of sectors in the mix, with Trump wanting easier treatment for US dairy and auto, while Canada continues to dangle its F-35 fighter jet plans and push for timber and steel relief. The Canucks have stuck to a strategy of polite negotiation for now, but they’ve already flexed some of their leverage in this trade war, with possible implications for gas and utility bills across the US north-east.
- 06
UNITED STATES
Hegseth under fire?
Reports from Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post claim Pete Hegseth is “on the verge of losing his job” due to President Trump’s mounting frustration over the stalled Iran conflict and ongoing Pentagon controversies (like crew welfare aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln). (SCMP $)
Comment: There’s nothing too surprising about this rumour around a guy who rebranded the DoD as the Department of War then failed to win the very next war. What’s more intriguing is the notion of this rumour being first reported by an outlet owned by China’s Alibaba and subject to Party pressure: the SCMP piece is striking for how much praise it lavishes on the current state of US-China ties, leaving us to wonder if this is just Beijing signalling a bit of cabinet anxiety ahead of Xi’s DC visit next month.
- 07
ZAMBIA
Second term locked.
President Hichilema has won a second five-year term with more than 61% of the vote, handily defeating a divided opposition in a tense election cycle marked by opposition arrests. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: HH (as he’s known) pitched himself as the best guy to maintain growth while restructuring Zambia’s crushing debt, but the real balancing act still lies ahead: DC’s single biggest infra project in Africa (the Lobito Corridor) hopes to connect Zambia’s mineral belt to Angola’s Atlantic port (bypassing China-controlled supply chains), but Beijing still remains Zambia’s single biggest creditor.
- 08
CHINA
Skipping UNGA for the Oval?
President Xi is reportedly skipping next month’s annual UN General Assembly in New York, choosing instead to fly straight to DC for his next highly-anticipated summit with President Trump. (Politico)
Comment: Siri, give us the perfect example of a multilateral world rapidly collapsing into bilaterals.