This dictator is making a comeback

A month ago, The Economist asked a simple question: “Is Aung San Suu Kyi dead?” Myanmar’s democratically-elected leader hadn’t been seen or heard since 2022, when the generals jailed her for 33 years after re-seizing power. 

Now fast forward, and Myanmar’s junta suddenly publishes pics of Suu Kyi. With all the subtlety of a brick, one (above) features her cutting a pink birthday cake emblazoned with ‘Happy Birthday Aunty Suu’, plus June 19 2026 clearly visible. It all gives major Proof of Life energy, if that 2000-era hit were produced by Hallmark.

But how did we get to a point where juntas are leaking world leader pics with the glee of 90s celeb paparazzi? And where is this wild story headed?

First, how we got here: after decades of post-independence veering between democracy and military rule, the generals started tentatively relinquishing control up until the 2015 elections that finally brought the Nobel laureate Suu Kyi to power.

With successive landslide wins under her belt, she then tried to chip away at the military-drafted constitution that gave the generals a quarter of parliament, plus cabinet posts and veto powers. But seeing the writing on the wall, those generals returned in a coup immortalised in the background of a fitness instructor video.

This was the spark that ignited a bloody civil war between the military and forces loyal to the ousted government, fighting alongside several ascendant ethnic militias:

• By 2024, the junta was controlling barely a fifth (!) of the country, and

• There were rumours the new dictator (Min Aung Hlaing) was in deep trouble.

So how did the junta wriggle its way out of this jam?

First, it’s now swelled its ranks with a conscription drive adding 60,000 troops.

Second, it’s leaned into its air superiority, ruthlessly bombing rebel-held villages.

Third, it’s done that with help from friends like Russia and China, who’ve variously sent jets, drones, jammers, and intel, neutering an initial drone advantage first pioneered by the opposition.

And fourth, Beijing has also weighed in with diplomatic support, whether blocking UN resolutions, urging Southeast Asia to re-engage, or strong-arming Myanmar’s various border region militias into ceasefires with the junta.

Oh, and state outlets also amusingly described the 2021 coup as a mere “cabinet reshuffle”, before China’s communist rulers — famously not a fan of elections back home — publicly endorsed the junta’s latest sham ballot over in Myanmar.

But… why would China back the junta?

There are some standard reasons, like keeping that 2,100km shared border stable, avoiding violent spill-over, or tackling the cross-border scam compounds that’ve defrauded vast numbers of citizens back home.

But there are also some more nakedly transactional drivers, like protecting the billion-dollar Belt & Road projects (including oil and gas pipelines) that give China direct Indian Ocean access and dilute its dependence on the Malacca bottleneck.

Or there’s securing the 90%+ of China’s heavy rare earth element imports from Myanmar’s border region — these are things like dysprosium and terbium that China needs for high-performance magnets in EVs, wind turbines, and defence tech.

Or there’s just the broader interest in keeping a dependent, predictable military regime rather than risk a fragmented and potentially more pro-Western alternative.

Anyway, the result of this six-year civil war has now been 100,000+ dead, while the junta regains and stabilises its control over maybe a third of Myanmar’s territory.

And that’s where the fighting now seems to have reached an uneasy equilibrium, which actually suits the dictator (Min Aung Hlaing) just fine — it’s freed him up to fight another battle he could actually win: polishing his junta’s image abroad.

If you can’t control the map, try controlling the narrative instead?

Sound even smarter:

• Myanmar remains one of the world’s most fragmented conflicts, with more than 1,200 armed groups now active on the ground.

• The conflict has displaced ~4 million folks internally, and sent another ~1.6 million fleeing abroad.