South Korea wants peace

Some of us leave dishes in the sink overnight. Others leave entire catastrophic wars unfinished for seven decades.

Today's briefing falls more in that second category, with two big announcements around the Korean War. By way of casual recap on that catastrophic conflict…

• It started back in 1950 when the North (backed by Stalin) invaded the South to unify the peninsula under communist rule, and almost succeeded until...

• A massive US-led response pushed the commies back, until...

• Mao's China poured hundreds of thousands of troops over the border and fought the US to a stalemate that — three million dead later — continues today.

We've had a ceasefire since 1953, but never a formal peace treaty.

So... what's now changed?

First, South Korea's Lee Jae Myung just used Saturday's Liberation Day formalities (marking the 1945 end of Japanese colonial rule) to suggest (🇰🇷)...
a) direct talks to formally end the war
b) new safeguards to stop accidental border clashes, and
c) practical discussions to halt the North's nuclear build-up.

The big picture? Lee says he hopes the two can finally "sit face-to-face for peaceful coexistence and mutual growth".

But then second, President Trump tweeted overnight that he'll "substantially reduce" the joint US-South military drills due to kick off today (Monday).

Why? He lists a few reasons, including not just his "very good relationship" with the North's dictator (Kim), but also that the drills are a) costly, b) "hostile" to a "respectful" North, and c) harder to justify given the South didn't help on Iran.

And... how has the autocratic North responded to all this? Complete silence so far, unless you count yet another ballistic test, plus the North's first violation of the DMZ dividing line this year (drawing warning shots from the South).

So what’s going on here?

Maybe the North’s initial silence is because Kim is busy counting his lucky stars: the US would ordinarily only trade drill reductions for Northern concessions, but here those US reductions are seemingly arriving not only free of charge, but paired with a dunk on America's own allies, right as they were extending an olive branch!

It also comes just as Kim sends yet another batch of troops and missiles to help Putin's flailing invasion of Ukraine, while Kim’s own home economy booms with Russian payments, and all amid persistent rumours the US president actually wants to take another stab at Kim-Trump summitry.

Or to put it another way... go help invade Europe, cash the Russian cheques at home, then watch while your rivals dangle even more concessions plus maybe even the prospect of yet another US presidential summit further legitimising your own regime.

Perhaps the hope in Seoul and DC is that if you throw enough carrots Kim's way, it might coax him towards dialogue and even restraint. And yet history suggests dictators are always happy to eat carrots and smile for photos, but they’ll eventually start demanding dessert.

Sound even smarter:

• A North Korean soldier seemingly defected across the DMZ in June.

• There are still around 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea, home to America’s largest overseas military base.