Lula vs Bolsonaro kicks off

The frontrunners for Brazil’s presidential elections just launched their campaigns on Sunday, ahead of what’s shaping up as a race tighter than your jeans after Carnival.

Yes, there’s the sheer drama of 214 million folks picking between two starkly different visions, whether via the incumbent left’s Lula or the right’s Bolsonaro Jr.

But there’s also what that all means for…

• A leading source of critical minerals like niobium (infra, energy, defence)

• The world’s top exporter of soybeans, coffee, beef, and sugar, and

• A key swing player in this century’s East-West race for dominance.

So with that nervous throat-clearing out of the way, let’s take a look at this two-horse race, starting with…

1. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

President Lula launched his campaign at the Vila Euclides Stadium near Sao Paulo, and not just for its free wi-fi and convenient parking. Rather, this Onde Tudo Começou (Where Everything Began) event was a very specific flex:

• It’s the spot where the former union boss helped end Brazil’s dictatorship, and

• He did all that in the 80s while his younger rival was literally still in nappies.

Now asking for a fourth and final term, he’s running on a familiar pro-worker platform (shifting down to a five-day workweek!), plus the kinds of resource nationalism in vogue everywhere else (more local processing).

But he’s also framing himself as Brazil’s defender against two allied forces:

• One is (in his telling) the US interventionism revived via Trump 2.0, and

• The other is Brazil’s own illiberal populism revived via his rival, Bolsonaro Jr.

Strengths 

Lula is pitching himself as the experienced statesman Brazil needs in today’s turbulent world, with a record of solid growth and popular social security policies. 

Weaknesses

Critics say he’s too old (81 on inauguration day), has presided over a cost-of-living crisis, and is weak on security and corruption (his own son is under investigation).

And speaking of sons and investigations…

2. Flavio Bolsonaro

The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (now doing 27 years for plotting a 2022 coup to stay in power), he launched his campaign on the famous Copacabana beach:

• It’s his family’s political stronghold, and

• His visible bullet-proof vest (a response to death threats) evoked memories of his father’s 2018 stabbing, plus broader insecurity as a campaign issue.

Anyway, Junior now has quite the balancing act ahead: convince voters he’s the heir to his father’s conservative movement, but not his father’s legal baggage.

Though on that baggage front, he’s pledging to pardon his father, grant amnesty for the 2023 storming of Brasilia, and curb the courts he accuses of overreach.

Strengths

His tough-on-crime vibes (think El Salvador-style megaprisons and jail times) are resonating with a weary electorate, while Brazil’s powerful agribusiness sector loves his pledge to liberalise the economy.

Bolsonaro Jr’s visible family dramas have also earned him a bit of voter sympathy: the Supreme Court has blocked any visits to his dad until after October’s election, while he just publicly reconciled with his step-mum (Brazil’s former first lady). 

Weaknesses

Junior’s campaign really took a while to get going, whether due to the leaked tapes of him tapping a disgraced banker for cash, or the delays in finding a running mate: his low-profile internal pick hints at a failure to bring more parties into a coalition.

Plus his tight Trump ties are a mixed bag politically: folks don’t appreciate the tariffs, but some believe Bolsonaro is the ticket to simpler ties with a US giant.

So… who’s going to win? Runoff polls have narrowed sharply to a technical tie, with Lula slightly favoured in a second round. In parallel, Brazilian assets (Ibovespa, real, and bonds) are shuddering at the mix of uncertainty plus Lula favourability.

Sound even smarter:

• Brazil recently blocked a visit by two senior US State Department reps, citing fears they’d try to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system.

• The first round is on Sunday October 4th. A runoff (if no candidate clears 50% in the first) would be on Sunday October 25th.