Will Trump hit Venezuela?

Hot take, but many in DC believe the US and Venezuela are headed to war. Why? Well….

On the US side, the National Security Council met on Venezuela yesterday (Monday), just after Trump a) reportedly delivered a Friday ultimatum for Venezuela’s Maduro to leave or be forced out, then b) moved (via tweet) to close Venezuelan airspace.

On the Venezuelan side, Maduro has now rejected both a) what he sees as imperialist yankee threats, and b) Trump’s Friday ultimatum, and is now pleading with the OPEC oil cartel for help, arguing the US just wants Venezuela’s oil reserves (the world’s largest).

And how’s the rest of the world responding? Major airlines have now duly hit pause, leaving us wondering if Miami-based Venezuelan mega-band Los Amigos Invisibles will proceed with its big home-coming tour due to kick off in Caracas on Friday. The only carriers still braving the skies are from nearby Colombia, Panama, and Bolivia.

As for the region’s presidential palaces?

1. Lima and Santiago 

Both Peru and Chile are nervous — under Maduro, Venezuela’s complete collapse (which predates US sanctions by years btw) has sent eight million folks fleeing across — and destabilizing — the region. Fed-up Chileans now look set to elect a hardline new president in response, with undocumented Venezuelans already fleeing north to Peru.

And that’s prompted Peru — stuck in a rolling political crisis since ~2016-17 — to now deploy extra troops to the border under a state of emergency.

Now throw in the possibility of conflict? Both are bracing for even more new arrivals.

2. Havana 

Take a spin through Cuban state media, and you’ll see the hottest trending piece announces that “the next direct flight from Russia to Venezuela is still scheduled.” They’re highlighting defiance of US diktats. Why?

Beyond their own ideological alignment with Maduro, there’s probably a fear that if Venezuela’s Maduro loses his grip on power, Cuba’s own Castro legacy might be next. 

3. Bogota

Colombia’s Gustavo Petro is walking his own tightrope: amid miserable polling numbers, he’s doubling down on his Trump criticism (whether oil or boat-strikes), while calling on everyone to just let the Venezuelans figure it out themselves — he’s even offered Cartagena as a venue for opposition-Maduro talks.

Then at the other end of the spectrum there’s…

4. Buenos Aires

Argentina’s firebrand leader Javier Milei has always been a fervent Maduro critic — he’s backed up the rhetoric by helping shelter opposition members in his Caracas embassy, and on Monday calling for the International Criminal Court to arrest Maduro for crimes against humanity — the ICC has been in investigation mode there since 2018.

And as for South America’s biggest player…?

5. Brasília

Brazil’s President Lula made headlines in 2023 when he not only met Venezuela’s Maduro, but seemingly downplayed the dictator’s human rights abuses — he’s also criticised what he sees as US imperialism, in line with Brazil’s non-interventionist tradition.

But with US-Brazil ties wobbling, Lula has now focused more on mediation efforts, while also helping steward Argentina’s embassy in Caracas lately.

Oh, and Mexico? It’s the other key player here, with enough regional influence to back or discredit whatever comes next — it’s long felt the brunt of Venezuela’s collapse, though any hint of support for a US intervention will trigger political blowback at home.