Will India and Pakistan go nuclear?

Everyone from diplomats (Russians included) to ex-diplomats (Intrigue included), plus the world’s top UN watchdog, random boffins, and energy entrepreneurs, all crammed into a DC nuclear conference this week.

And while panels tackled hot topics like Iran, the watercooler chatter focused on nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan. In fact, the event host (Carnegie’s president) even flagged this as a bigger risk than any ‘great power’ nuclear clash.

So when Pakistan-based jihadis stormed a tourist resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Tuesday, Carnegie’s nuclear crowd grew nervous.

Why?

In shooting scores of tourists dead, this offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) has lit a match in an area that’s long been highly combustible.

Kashmir has been split in two since the 1947 partition of British India: one part still controlled by Pakistan, the other by India, and all parts still claimed by both. These days, it’s a lightning rod for all the reasons these two neighbours don’t get along, including:

• History, like the millions violently displaced during partition

• Faith, broadly along the fault lines of Hinduism (India) and Islam (Pakistan)

• Politics, including rivalry between India’s secular (if Hindu-dominated) democracy and Pakistan’s Islamic republic, all feeding into…

• Competition for regional influence, mutual allegations of backing hostile separatists, not to mention some very hostile media narratives.

Against all that (plus tensions with China), India tested its first nuke in 1974, nudging Pakistan to follow suit (with China’s help) in 1998.

But after years of periodic deadly attacks, things seemed relatively quiet as we entered 2025, with Delhi hinting at a coming “permanent peace” and encouraging more tourism.

But India’s worst terrorist attack in years has now upended everything, with Delhi already:

• Closing the Wagah border crossing

• Suspending a major water-sharing treaty

• Expelling Pakistani diplomats and military advisers

• Cancelling vast numbers of Pakistani visas, and

• Blaming Pakistan’s support for “cross-border terrorism” (a claim Islamabad denies).

And PM Modi has now cut short his Saudi trip to instead convene his national security council, pledging “punishment beyond imagination” for those responsible.