Latest news for 23 May 2025

UNITED STATES

House passes Trump’s big bill.

Defying expectations, Trump’s fractious House lawmakers have united to approve changes that’ll cut taxes, immigration, and Medicaid. Now off to the Senate. (The Hill)

Comment: While Trump’s various House factions are each claiming a win, everyone also seems to acknowledge this draft package will add trillions to government deficits over the next decade. And the timing is pretty poor, because…

JAPAN

A bond market implosion?

After decades of ultra-easy monetary policy to spur growth, Japan’s sticky inflation and quiet bond auctions are pushing government yields to historic highs. (FT $)

Comment: It’s partly due to technical drivers (new insurer solvency ratios), but also doubts around Japan’s longer-term fiscal trajectory. Either way, we may see Japanese investors bring their vast piles of cash back home in search of more attractive returns, meaning even lower demand for (and therefore even higher yields on) US debt.

KAZAKHSTAN

PepsiCo doubles down on Kazakh snacks.

PepsiCo is allotting another $320M to triple output at a local snack plant it hopes will become the firm’s hub for broader Central Asia. (Times of Central Asia)

Comment: PepsiCo is one of the larger US firms still operating in Russia, though it seems to have adjusted its operations in response to public pressure. So Central Asia is the natural choice as a hedge: pursue opportunities in these growing markets, with solid freight links into neighbouring Russia and China if/when things improve. For any less reputable executives looking to skirt sanctions and tariffs, we hear there’s no shortage of local warehouses willing to relabel your widget as made in Almaty.

FRANCE

French billionaire defies Macron’s call to halt US investments. Bernard Arnault (the luxury magnate worth a cool $150B) has pushed back on the French president’s calls to freeze investments in the US after Trump’s 20% tariffs, arguing it's “very bad” for the state to meddle in private business affairs. (Politico)

Comment: A tricky balance for Arnault, with close ties to both Macron and Trump (he even scored a prime seat at the Trump 2.0 inauguration). Still, any sanctity of Arnault’s public/private rule didn’t stop him allegedly nixing a high-tax coalition emerging from France’s political chaos last year.

PHILIPPINES

President ditches cabinet after lousy midterms.

Following last week’s underwhelming midterm result, President Marcos Jr has called on his cabinet to resign after candidates loyal to his arch-rival and predecessor did surprisingly well (Duterte himself is facing trial in The Hague). (Straits Times)

UNITED STATES

Trump ends Harvard’s international students.

The Department of Homeland Security has announced Harvard can no longer enrol international students, with current enrollees required to transfer elsewhere. The Trump administration argues Harvard has created an anti-American atmosphere and coordinated with China’s Communist Party. (Harvard Crimson)

Comment: Our WhatsApp group has been firing on this topic (plus Japan’s bond market implosion above), exploring possible political, economic, and strategic drivers (not to mention the imminent lawsuits). Join the chat by sharing Intrigue with five or more friends using your unique referral link.

MAURITIUS

UK signs deal to hand Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

The deal with Mauritius enables London to keep using the secretive UK-US Diego Garcia base on a ~$136M annual lease, ending initial speculation Trump 2.0 might seek to overturn the deal. (BBC)