What we might’ve missed

All the escalating, de-escalating, and re-escalating in the Middle East has captured the world’s attention lately, and sure, fair enough. Since our last briefing…

• An irate President Trump has called out both Israel and Iran for breaking his ceasefire, adding the two foes “don’t know what the f*ck they’re doing”

• Leaked initial US intelligence suggests the weekend’s US strikes failed to destroy Iranian nuclear sites, an assessment the White House calls “flat-out wrong”, and

• Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Israel is prepared to strike Iran again if Tehran resumes its nuclear program (as it’s already pledged to do).

So it’s possible those US strikes might not’ve obliterated Iran’s nuclear program, so much as vindicated and accelerated it. And you might recall former top US targeting professional Wes J. Bryant flagged this risk with us on Friday.

Anywhoo, believe it or not but the world has continued to turn while this all plays out, so here are three other quick updates the B-2s might’ve bumped off the front pages:  

1. 💸 FINANCE - Rates reveal divergent strategies

Over the past week…  

• The Swiss and the Norwegians both cut their rates

• The Fed (plus the Bank of England) held theirs steady, and

• Brazil’s central bank hiked rates for the seventh straight meeting to 15% 

What does this mean? Sure, there are different domestic drivers — the Brazilians are grappling with inflation while the Swiss grapple with deflation, for example.

But there are also different strategies on display here in response to US tariffs: the Swiss are desperate to curb their franc, which has soared amid all the trade uncertainty; the Norwegians are pre-emptively easing to mitigate trade-war impacts on their growth; while the Brits and the Fed are still playing wait-and-see, as possible inflation still works its way through.

2. 💻 TECH - Huawei’s bold new laptop?

China’s tech giant Huawei just unveiled its newest laptop, the Matebook Fold, featuring a cool screen that opens and folds like a book, packing more pixels. But… who cares?

Well, you might recall it was Huawei who shocked the world a couple of years ago with a new cellphone packing hardware suggesting China might’ve shrugged off US tech controls and figured out how to close the semiconductor tech gap.

We had our doubts at the time, so there was keen interest to see what Huawei might unveil next. And it turns out while this laptop’s design is cutting edge, its chips are not: According to TechInsights, the Matebook still uses the same years-old 7nm technology. 

By way of reference, Taiwan’s TSMC is set to start mass producing 2nm chips later this year, a full three generations ahead. So while it’s still way too early for DC to pop the champagne, it does suggest US tech controls are having an impact in a critical sector.

3. 🌱 COMMODITIES - Colombia’s fertiliser collapse 

This story starts next door in Venezuela, which owns the Colombia-based ‘Monómeros Colombo Venezolanos’ fertiliser plant. That plant produces ~28% of Colombia’s fertiliser but its special exemption from US sanctions on the Maduro regime is set to expire this month and seemingly won’t get renewed as Trump 2.0 ramps up pressure on Maduro.

What does this mean? Colombian and Venezuelan (mostly small) farmers will see their fertiliser costs spike, exacerbating the political, economic, and possibly even security woes for Colombia’s own embattled President Petro.

Longer term, Maduro next door was already floating the idea of selling the plant (his regime needs the cash), so someone might score a sweet summer firesale discount.