What’s up with the Trump-Modi bromance?

If great films like Bridesmaids taught us anything, it’s that the power of friendship (and Brazilian BBQ) can conquer all.

But if great shows like It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia taught us anything, it’s that maybe there are folks who’d be better off if they weren’t friends? Which (ahem) gets us to…

The US and India have plenty in common: they’re the two largest democracies in the world; they did ~$212B in trade last year; around 6% of the US immigrant population hails from India (including the CEOs of Microsoft, Google, IBM, and Adobe), and the two now share a rival (hint: it starts with C and rhymes with Carolina).  

Now sure, they’ve had the kinds of challenges essential for any great friendship story: India was hurt when the US sided with Pakistan in the 1971 war, then… India got some sweet sweet revenge by conducting its famous “peaceful nuclear explosion” in 1974, effectively declaring itself a nuclear power to DC’s dismay.

But you need those bitter moments to truly enjoy the up-beat, second-act, 80s montage:

• President Bush reversing decades of diplomatic deep-freeze in 2008

• President Obama declaring India a ‘Major Defence Partner’ in 2016

• President Biden hosting the first Quad leader summit (🇺🇸🇮🇳🇯🇵🇦🇺) in 2021, and

• President Trump continuing his famous bromance with India’s Modi, culminating in a signed copy of Trump’s ‘Our Journey Together’ photo book this February, featuring a personal note reading “Mr Prime Minister, you are great”.   

Roll the credits? No. Get more popcorn. Because over the last few days, Trump has…

• Called India’s economy “dead”  

• Hit India with 25% tariffs (higher than rivals like Pakistan and truce-era China), and

• Threatened more pain if India keeps buying discounted Russian oil.  

Why the sudden shift?

First, it reflects President Trump’s evolving stance towards Russia, which…

Second, reflects an acknowledgement his pledge to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is still pending, which reflects…

Third, not Ukraine defending itself, but Putin’s continued attacks, largely financed by…

Fourth, oil purchases from China ($62B per annum) and India ($53B), together buying ~85% of Russia’s entire seaborne crude!

So how has India responded to Trump’s pivot? Its messaging so far has included:

• Defending its oil-buying as a “vital national compulsion”

• Arguing the US once “actively encouraged” these imports to stabilise markets, and

• Pointing back at US imports of Russian uranium ($600M), palladium ($900M), and fertilisers ($1.3B).

So for now, Delhi is saying it won’t stop buying Putin’s discounted oil, meaning the famous Trump-Modi bromance looks more like a stand-off.