What's Bibi doing back in Gaza?

After weeks of Israeli air strikes, ground raids, and blockades billed as pressure tactics to force Hamas to release the final 59 hostages, the Israeli security cabinet has unanimously approved a plan to expand back across Gaza. The details of this ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ directive remain fuzzy, but an Israeli official has told media it’ll include: 

• “the capture of the Strip and holding the territories”

• “moving the Gazan population south for its defence”

• “denying Hamas the ability to distribute humanitarian supplies”, and

• “powerful attacks against Hamas”.

Other reported details have emerged via media outlets, including:

• The destruction of all northern tunnels, and any structures deemed a threat

• The screening of civilians moved southwards (to filter out Hamas members), and  

• A new Israeli-controlled aid delivery via private contractors (to prevent Hamas from diverting aid — it’s unclear if this would end Israel’s blockade since March).

So, what’s going on? Here are the main theories…

• A negotiation tactic?

One senior Israeli official is telling outlets this plan won’t be implemented until after President Trump’s visit to the Middle East next week, calling it a “window of opportunity” for Hamas to release the hostages and agree to a new ceasefire.

Relatedly, Netanyahu might also be hoping to stoke Gazan unrest against Hamas, building on recent rare anti-Hamas protests across the strip.

But having survived the onslaught so far, and having crushed any dissent since it seized power in 2007, it’s hard to see why Hamas might change course now. To the contrary, Hamas remarks suggest some of the group’s leaders see casualties as tools to:

• Increase global pressure on — and delegitimise — Israel, plus

• Mobilise local support through resistance and martyrdom narratives.

Whatever it is, against the backdrop of Israel warning of an open-ended re-occupation of Gaza, Hamas officials have now declared there’s "no point in any negotiations". 

• A military tactic?

Bibi argues the plan will hasten the defeat of Hamas, with this ‘clear and hold’ strategy stopping Hamas from regrouping like it did last time. And that, he says, will hasten the release of the remaining 59 hostages (Israeli intelligence now believes only half are alive). 

But none of the hostage families are buying it; condemnation of the humanitarian cost continues; and Hamas’s big hostage release ceremonies (with military uniforms and arms) were a reminder of the difficulty of removing the group via military means alone.

So that’s led to claims this is nothing but… 

• A political tactic 

This plan has emerged after months of continued Israeli protests and rising discontent towards Bibi’s government, so there’s an argument it could be:

• A distraction from economic woes and the backlash over his judicial reforms

• A deflection from criticism over the ceasefire’s collapse, and/or

• A protection against coalition instability, by throwing red meat to his ultra-nationalist allies (parts of the plan echo their rhetoric).

Or yes… maybe this plan is exactly what it says on the label, and even a step towards what Bibi’s hardliners now openly seek: the permanent re-occupation of Gaza.