Israel and Hezbollah agree to a ceasefire

After days of rumours and hints, plus US declarations of optimism, it’s now official: the Israelis have agreed to a US (and French) brokered ceasefire with Hezbollah.

But first, some context. 

Israel and Hezbollah (a listed terrorist group) have been trading near-daily fire since October 8 last year, when Hezbollah resumed rocket, drone, and missile launches into Israel in solidarity with the Hamas attacks on Israel the day before.

After dismantling most Hamas battalions in Gaza, Israel then increasingly shifted its attention north to Hezbollah in Lebanon this year, including:

• Detonating thousands of pre-compromised Hezbollah pager devices

• Intensifying its airstrikes to wipe out most of Hezbollah’s leadership and much of its arsenal, and then

• Launching a ground invasion into southern Lebanon.

It’s now been the deadliest Israel-Hezbollah conflict since 2006, with Lebanon copping most of the loss of life (3,700), damage ($3.4B), and displacement (1.2 million). Israel says its goal has been to return the ~60,000 citizens who’ve fled their homes due to Hezbollah’s daily rockets over the past year.

So here’s what we know about this new ceasefire deal.

Israel’s full cabinet approved it last night (Tuesday), and the terms are based largely on UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the last Israel-Hezbollah war way back in 2006. The terms include:

• An initial 60-day ceasefire (with hopes it’ll then become permanent)

• Israel will withdraw from southern Lebanon during that time

• Hezbollah will withdraw all weapons and forces ~30km (19mi) back behind the Litani River (where it’s supposed to have been since 2006)

• The Lebanese army (smaller than Hezbollah) will try to fill the resulting border region void with 5,000 troops

• The US will lead a five-country coalition to monitor the ceasefire, while the beleaguered UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in the area gets reinforced, and

• Failing that, Israel retains the right to strike Hezbollah if it detects an immediate threat, while less immediate threats get reported to the above US-led coalition.

Notice anything missing above? That’s right, Hezbollah dropped its long-held demand for any ceasefire to be contingent on a ceasefire-hostage deal with Hamas in Gaza.

So why attempt this ceasefire now?

In his televised address, the Israeli prime minister laid out his three key reasons:

1. It’ll allow Israel to focus on Iran (which sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas)

2. It’ll allow the Israeli military to replenish its stockpiles, and

3. It’ll isolate Hamas (which can no longer count on Hezbollah’s support).

He also said Israel has now set Hezbollah back decades, and he’ll have been mindful of his own central bank’s forecast that this entire conflict could cost Israel 12% of its GDP.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s caretaker PM (Najib Mikati) has long pleaded for a ceasefire given the devastation wrought on his people. And that ‘caretaker’ in his title is revealing, too: Hezbollah has blocked the formation of a government in Lebanon for years, so his interim title is also a neat reminder of Hezbollah’s dominance there.

As for Hezbollah? Its current chief (Naim Qassem) has stayed silent, other than noting a week ago he’d provided “feedback” on the US proposal. Based on the terms above, this ‘feedback’ seems to have been short-term capitulation in favour of long-term survival, which his supporters are trying to spin as a success — notwithstanding the fact that his last two predecessors (and most cadres) are now dead, and his group is now diminished not only in the eyes of Israel, but also critically in the eyes of rival factions across Lebanon.