Venezuela’s geopolitical aftershock
Six days on from the dual 7.2 and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes that hit northern Venezuela, the sheer scale of devastation is now emerging: entire neighbourhoods in La Guaira (the port supplying Caracas) have been ruined, with tens of thousands still reported missing.
So with these sobering stats as context, let’s look at what this might all mean for…
🇻🇪 The Venezuelan government
Nicolás Maduro’s veep (Delcy Rodriguez) has been running the show ever since US special forces seized her dictator boss in January. And while she’s been adept at consolidating power and keeping her US patrons on-side, this disaster will make or break her.
A successful response could help bolster her legitimacy, unify her people, and side-line the opposition. But a poor response could erode whatever legitimacy she still enjoys, expose her regime’s fragility, and fuel the opposition’s rallying cry. So… which is it?
Right now, our money is on option b: after decades of decay under her authoritarian party, she’s already getting jeered in the streets as communities still await first contact, while overwhelmed hospitals openly rely on BYO bandages and other supplies.
But there’s also outrage amid claims she’s exploiting the crisis. Eg, folks are angry at…
Of course, regime supporters argue it’s the opposition trying to politicise a tragedy, and point out that Rodriguez has (unlike her forerunner Chavez after the 1999 landslides) now accepted help from ideological rivals, like El Salvador’s Bukele and Argentina’s Milei.
Either way, the real test might come longer-term as alleged scandals come into focus — locals are already venting that many of Venezuela’s collapsed buildings were the product of notorious Chavez/Maduro-era housing projects rushed by corrupt insiders.
So okay, if the Rodriguez regime is already under pressure, then what about…
✊ The opposition
Pro-democracy opposition figure María Corina Machado has been exiled since December, when she evaded Maduro’s bogus arrest warrants to make a surprise Oslo appearance for her Nobel Peace Prize. Maduro actually cancelled her passport!
But even with Maduro gone, his security apparatus (SEBIN) is still in place, so there are still credible fears for her safety — she claims Delcy has already blocked her return twice.
More intriguingly, there are reports DC actually discouraged her from returning via neighbouring Curaçao, warning it’d be risky and divisive at a critical time.
It’s all a tricky dilemma for the opposition: aside from naturally wanting to help your compatriots, there’s the politics of being abroad during the country’s worst disaster.
But even if folks assign Delcy blame for the disaster still unfolding, there’s a parallel fear she’ll use the crisis to postpone elections and further entrench her own power.
Anyway, we now have Corina Machado’s answer — the opposition figure is now in Panama, pledging to return home imminently, which brings us to another key power…
🇺🇸 The US
Within hours of the quakes, US Secretary of State Rubio was already pledging support: “It'll be big; it'll be fast; and it'll be effective.” And there are indeed now 100+ US disaster responders on the ground, while DC pipes $50M to various in-country aid groups and temporarily exempts relief efforts from US sanctions.
Why…? Beyond obviously just being the humane thing to do, particularly after you’ve just ousted the previous dictator, there’s also…
The broader credibility of US alignment (everyone’s better off being our friend)
The imperative of boxing out rivals like China, Russia, and Cuba, and
The self-interest of preventing more destabilising emigration and armed groups.
Most of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is far from the epicentre. But then there’s the…
🌎 Rest of the world
Exploring the geopolitical dimension of aid and disaster relief isn’t meant to take away from the dangerous and difficult work of the thousands already there on the ground — beyond the heroism of Venezuelans themselves, Rodriguez has thanked the 24 countries who’ve already sent 521 tons of aid, 86 canine units, and 2,700 specialists.
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