UK Supreme Court shoots down Rwanda policy

16 November 2023By John Fowler, Jeremy Dicker and Helen Zhang

The UK Supreme Court has shot down the government’s plan for certain asylum-seekers to be processed in Rwanda, labelling it “unlawful”.

We’ve read all 56 pages of the court’s decision so you don’t have to. The legalese gets complex in parts but, intriguingly, the judges delve into some of Rwanda’s recent history, including:

Rwanda’s “apparent failure” to uphold an earlier migration deal with Israel, and
“at least 100 allegations of refoulement and threatened refoulement” (ie, forcibly returning people to a country where they’re at risk).

But the court says ultimately the issue isn’t “the good faith of the government of Rwanda at the political level, but its practical ability to fulfil its assurances.”

Domestically, the court’s decision caps an eventful few days for Downing Street (including a shock cabinet reshuffle), and comes just as Prime Minister Sunak suits up for next year’s elections.

But regionally, the UK isn’t exactly an outlier. Irregular crossings through the Central Mediterranean have almost doubled this year, and more capitals are looking to third-country deals for an answer:

Italy recently announced it would build two migrant centres in Albania
Germany is examining the feasibility of its own Rwanda-style deal, and
The EU and Tunisia are still working on their agreement from June.

And European supporters of this third-country approach have, in turn, long taken their inspiration from the other side of the world: Australia.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s hard to think of a more sensitive topic than migration, sitting right at the crossroads of national identity, state sovereignty, individual dignity, and international responsibility.

In that maelstrom, Sunak says he’ll rework his plan in order to address the court’s concerns. But anyone who’s familiar with Australia’s system (the model for the Rwanda deal) knows this is probably just the beginning.

Also worth noting:

Sunak’s vow to introduce emergency legislation came shortly after his Australian counterpart pledged his own urgent laws in response to a separate landmark court case on migration.

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THE XI-BIDEN MEETING

🇨🇳 What Xi said: “For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option […] Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other.”
🇺🇸 What Biden said: “We have the responsibility to our people and the world to work together when we see it in our interest to do so. Critical global challenges we face, from climate change to counter-narcotics to artificial intelligence, demand our joint efforts.”

And the pair struck a few low-stakes but potentially meaningful deals:

💊 On drugs, Beijing agreed to go after fentanyl producers and the companies that synthesise its components, in exchange for US sanctions relief on a security agency accused of human rights abuses.
🌱 On climate, the pair reportedly pledged to resume cooperation and ramp-up renewables (though Biden didn’t mention this at his post-meeting press conference).
🤖 And on AI, the duo agreed to prohibit its use in autonomous systems like drones, as well as in nuclear command and control. Plus, Biden announced in his presser that the US and China would restore high-level military-to-military ties.

Also worth noting:

Some US lawmakers weren’t happy the talks took place at all, with 20 Republican senators warning in a letter that the meeting sent a “clear message that this administration will pursue an economic reset with China above fortifying the national security of the United States.”