Trump vs Iran: who’s lying?

Shortly after our last briefing hit your inbox, the US president made an all-caps announcement that, thanks to “very good and productive conversations” with Iran, he was now postponing his threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.

But barely two hours later, Iran’s regime flatly rejected Trump’s claim, insisting he was just backing down to avoid more energy chaos — the mullahs even attached a pic of a rather crestfallen Trump for illustrative purposes.

So… who’s lying? Let’s examine the evidence, starting with…

1. Why the Iranians might be lying

There are four main factors to consider:

First, the US president paired his claim with specific details, including a) that his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are now involved, and b) the talks are with a “respected senior Iranian figure” he can’t name because “I don’t want him to be killed” (Israeli outlets say it’s Iran’s strongman parliamentary speaker, Ghalibaf).

Trump has also now claimed the Iranians have agreed to an unspecified 15 points — things like no nukes, no enrichment, and joint US-Iran control of Hormuz going forward — all in return for a complete end to hostilities.

Second, there are consistent and escalating rumours of high-level talks happening in Islamabad or Ankara as soon as this week, with VP Vance potentially leading the US side.

Third, there’s precedent: for years, the Iranians publicly denied the actual US talks on what eventually became the JCPOA nuclear deal. Admitting any contact too early would risk making the regime look weak to rivals both at home and abroad.

And fourth, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have all variously now been meeting with — and maybe relaying messages between — both Iran and the US for at least a couple of days, while Israel’s Netanyahu has suddenly changed his tune to hint there’s now an opportunity to convert battlefield gains into a deal.

So there’s enough smoke right there to raise genuine doubts around Iran’s denials.

Okay, but…

2. Why Trump might be lying

Again, four big factors to consider:

First, the Iranians have issued immediate and total denials from every power centre, including not just that state outlet above but also the foreign ministry, Ghalibaf himself, and IRGC-linked channels on Telegram. They all explicitly deny indirect talks, too.

Second, there’s been no independent Iranian corroboration of any Trump claims — something we did eventually see during those old secret JCPOA deal talks.

Third, the Iranians are spelling out one of Trump’s obvious motives: to stabilise markets. And sure enough, oil prices bungee-jumped from $114 to as low as $96 within minutes of his announcement. But other motives to fib could include buying time until more US marines arrive later this week for (say) a move on Kharg Island. There’s precedent for that motive, too (like last year’s US fake-out before hitting Iran’s nuclear sites).

Meanwhile, with the regime still holding on, it’s hard to see the mullahs having any real motive (per Trump’s claim) to give up so much of what’s really their sole remaining leverage. It’s even harder to see them trusting the US or Israel any time soon.

Then…

Fourth, there’s also precedent for this White House (ahem) exaggerating progress to calm jitters, whether you want to look at the market-friendly claims of a mysterious Greenland deal, or the president’s repeated 2019 claims of a “substantial deal” with China, which only came several months later (if you want to believe one really came at all).