Three other wartime energy surprises

If it feels like everyone around you is now an oil expert, it’s critical you immediately one-up them by smugly highlighting three other energy stories they missed, starting with… 

1. 🔋 Batteries are charging (ahead)

While oil majors like Chevron (12%+) and BP (17%+) have naturally enjoyed a share bump with their main product suddenly earning a cool 40%+ wartime premium, China’s top battery giants like CATL (19%+), Sungrow (19%+) and BYD (22%+) have done even better.

Why? Sure, the Iranian regime’s Hormuz survival strategy delivers an immediate sugar hit to any oil majors still able to deliver kilojoules to panicky customers.

But in parallel, investors are betting some of those same customers and governments will only redouble their longer-term pivot away from any foreign oil dependency, not so much in the spirit of hugging trees, but in the spirit of raw, undiluted self-interest.

So it makes sense to add more batteries to the energy mix, but you’ll need a) a metric butt-load (China alone deployed ~190GWh / $15B last year to shave maybe 1% off its dependency); and b) you’ve often got to pair it all with grid upgrades (China is pledging another $720B over the next five years).

The good news, however, is battery tech keeps getting cheaper (67% down since 2020) and better (BYD just announced it can fully charge an EV in nine minutes).

The trickier news for everyone else is we just risk trading one dependency (Hormuz) for another: China controls ~70% of global supply, and closer to 100% for critical inputs.

Now join us way down the other end of the clean energy spectrum for an update on…

2. 🏭 Coal’s back(stop)

The Newcastle coal benchmark (out of Australia’s east coast) is up ~20% since the war, with individual producers enjoying similar share bumps.

Why? As oil and gas prices surge, priced-out buyers are switching to coal: eg, Thailand is firing up two coal plants it just decommissioned, Korea has eased its coal cap, and even Indonesia (the world’s top coal exporter) says it’s now prioritising its own power plants.

And it’s not just in Hormuz-dependent Asia: over in Europe, Italy’s energy minister is flagging the possibility of reactivating reserve plants, while Germany’s energy mix has already seen a 2% coal spike since the war.

As capitals pivot hard to energy security over purity, those net zero targets might fade further over the horizon. And if coal is the quick fix, then join us way down the other end of the speedometer to finish with…

3. ☢️ Going nuclear.

We know what you’re thinking: if the Iran war is driving oil, gas, batteries, and coal up, it must be driving a nuclear boom too, right? Hah, no.

Canada’s Cameco (the clearest pure-play uranium producer) is now down 11%. America’s Constellation (the largest US operator) is down ~8%. Global uranium ETFs are down 4%.

Why?

A few reasons, including…

• Capitals are frontloading rapid fixes like coal rather than waiting years for nuclear

• Nuclear fuel contracts are often locked long-term, meaning fewer sugar hits, and

• Those nuclear firms above already had a bumper 2025 (Cameco delivered 78%!) amid broader tailwinds from AI and beyond, so there’s a cash-in effect here too.

But if you were lucky enough to already have nuclear power online, you’re sitting pretty: for example, folks in France (~65% nuclear) are now projected to pay a ~quarter of what those Italians next door will pay for power in Q2.