Three high-stakes elections

It’s April, which means about three years have passed since January 1st 2026.

And because we may or may not be binge-rewatching F.R.I.E.N.D.S eps to cope, we’ve used the F.R.I.E.N.D.S episodic style to label April’s three big elections, starting with…

1. The one where the US and Russia are on the same side: 🇭🇺 Hungary (Sunday)

Hungary (pop. 10 million) might not ordinarily dominate your front pages, but this election is different for three reasons:

First, the stakes: as a member of both NATO and the EU, this central European power can (and does) veto or slow-walk support for neighbouring Ukraine’s self-defence, or sanctions on Putin’s aggression, or calls like whether to let Finland and Sweden join NATO.

Second, the margin: after ~16 years in charge, Hungary’s Euro-and-NATO-sceptic populist, Viktor Orbán (62) is now polling a full 10 points behind the centre-right’s more EU-friendly Péter ​Magyar (45). This challenger is also Orbán’s own ex-protégé! Et tu, Péter?

Mix those stakes, margins, and egos together, and you get…

Third, the tactics: wow, where to start. Someone has tried a honeytrap against the resurgent Magyar, only to catch the telegenic bachelor on video with… *checks notes* his own ex-girlfriend? Nice try Vlad, but isn’t kompromat meant to be embarrassing?

Meanwhile, Western spooks have led the way, burning Putin’s preferred PM (Orbán) via a) an intercepted call between his foreign minister and the Kremlin, and even b) a leaked proposal by SVR (Putin’s CIA) to stage an assassination attempt and fire up Orbán’s base!

But history might show the most remarkable tactic has been all Orbán’s endorsements from sitting world leaders: traditionally a no-no, not just out of courtesy, but also common sense — how do you work with the winner if you backed their rival? But times have changed, and these kinds of endorsements (from fellow populists like Meloni, Bibi, Milei, JD Vance, and even Rob Schneider!) often signal more to a home base.

So… where’s the intrigue? If those polls are right (a massive ‘if’ these days), both Trump and Putin are now openly backing a guy who seems likely to lose power this Sunday.

Speaking of mindboggling elections, let’s take a quick look at… 

2. The one with the dictator’s daughter: 🇵🇪 Peru (Sunday)

Peruvians are now due to elect their ninth president since 2018! That’s a higher cast turnover than Grey’s Anatomy, and if that weren’t enough, a record ~35 contenders will appear on Sunday’s ballot! Two obvious questions:

• Why so much turnover? It’s about party fragmentation in a dysfunctional congress using impeachment to dominate a weak executive

• Why so many candidates? It’s about a low barrier to entry + deep popular distrust, eroding traditional parties and fuelling outsider candidates

This vote will go to a 2nd round in June, but the head-turning top names include…

• The conservative heiress Keiko Fujimori, pledging to recreate her divisive late father’s fast-growth, low-crime success (just without the crimes against humanity)

• The comedian Carlos Alvarez who, citing Ukraine’s Zelensky as inspiration, hopes sheer name recognition can deliver a win for his centre-right platform, and…

• The hotel tycoon and mayor Lopez Aliaga (nicknamed Porky!), pledging straight-talking results as ‘Peru’s Bolsonaro’ (just minus the coup attempt)

So… where’s the intrigue?

Based on polls (see epic caveat), one way or another, Peru seems likely to join the region’s broader trend via a conservative president pledging a pro-business, tough-on-crime, US-friendly way to stabilise. All front-runners are hoping it’s enough to attract investment back into the massive copper and silver deposits fuelling the global energy transition.

Then let’s wrap with… 

• The one where nothing changes: 🇩🇯 Djibouti (today!)

Ismail Omar Guelleh has been president since 1999, and he’ll be darned if he’s gonna let frivolous things like elections, civil liberties, or term limits change that. He’s effectively running unopposed, either because of a) his superior abilities, or b) his tight control?

Here’s the Intrigue: despite its small size, Djibouti has a welcoming spirit, hosting US, Chinese, French, Japanese, and Italian bases at the mouth of the strategic Red Sea. That’s one reason why few capitals will bother muttering about Guelleh’s latest inevitable win.