The US-Iran ceasefire is almost done

We've had another big weekend of Iran confusion, so here are the four numbers you need to know, starting with…

• 3

That's how many days are left in this 14-day US-Iran ceasefire, which expires Wednesday night. So there's a bit at stake in the second round of talks purportedly due in Pakistan from tonight (Monday). But...

• Iran's regime has flatly denied these talks are even happening, blaming DC's "excessive demands". And that might explain why...

• Trump just hit ctrl-z on even sending VP Vance at all, instead leaving lower-ranked (in theory) envoys Witkoff and Kushner to jet over to Pakistan.

The regime didn't specify which specific US demands are excessive, though we've long flagged the two sides are in complete opposition over nukes, proxies, and Hormuz.

And speaking of Hormuz...

• 10

That's how many international vessels just tried to break through the regime’s Hormuz blockade over the weekend before pulling a rapid U-turn amid Iranian radio warnings, plus even live fire from two regime gunboats! Yes, the regime still has gunboats.

The next day (Sunday), a regime-linked cargo vessel tried to defy the US blockade — a US destroyer gave the Iranians six hours of warnings before blowing a hole through the engine room and deploying Marines to seize the bridge.

The end result of these duelling enforcements is that Hormuz traffic is now effectively back to zero.

How'd this happen?

• 8 hours

That was the gap between Iran's foreign minister tweeting Hormuz is open, and a regime naval unit then reportedly radioing that “the Strait of Hormuz is still closed — we will open it by the order of our leader Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot."

Officials later claimed the 'idiot' referred to Trump, but the timing and parallel dunking on the FM's "poor judgment" make it realistically a reference to Iran’s own FM.

And we don't usually care about name-calling, other than in this instance, it hints at the regime's own spicy internal dynamics: playing hardball on the Pakistan talks, opening fire on Hormuz shipping, then publicly calling your own foreign minister an idiot, all hints at regime hardliners (like IRGC boss Ahmad Vahidi) now openly vying for control.

And we only care about that because it shapes a) what flexibility the regime is willing to show, and b) whether Iran’s negotiators can even guarantee compliance with any deal!

Maybe that's why...

• ~8%

That's how far US crude oil prices have spiked in recent hours (back around $90), as markets process the fact that…

• Trump just issued his third demand to reopen the Strait or “the United States is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran”, while...

• The regime is warning Hormuz will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade!

So… here we are, back to where it all began. And yet a ceasefire, a “we're open” tweet, and a radio roast later, there are ~zero ships transiting Hormuz, and 72 hours left on the clock. From here, we either see another TACO, another vexed deal, or another war.