The truth about Flight FZ1073

What started out as a routine FlyDubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv quickly devolved into a nightmare near Jordan, as the Boeing 737, carrying 180 souls, plunged 14,000 feet in under 30 seconds — wild enough to rip its tail rudder.

The jet then stabilised and sent out a ‘squawk 7700’ emergency, followed by a ‘7500 ’ signalling ‘unlawful interference’ (which can mean a hijacking). Less than an hour later, it returned to its less spicy ‘7700’ before making an emergency Saudi landing.

So what — and we cannot stress this enough — is going on?

Thanks to the startled passengers gradually sharing their ordeal, we ‘know’…

• The unnamed Omani co-pilot, a new hire, brandished an axe/knife, stabbed the Indian captain (Smit Machchhar), grabbed the controls, and started the plunge

• The wounded captain managed to unlock the cockpit door and call for help, and

• A mix of off-duty aircrew and passengers then tackled the attacking co-pilot, choked him out, and bound his hands with headphone wires!

• Off-duty pilots then stabilised and landed the flight, with an apparent assist from the plumber who says he religiously watches air crash documentaries!

Down on the ground, the Saudis arrested — and are still interviewing — the Omani co-pilot, and are urging patience.

In the meantime… why’d he do it? 

While Reuters initially quoted Israeli security officials downplaying this incident as “something else”, the lead theory quickly became terrorism: that’s the cold arithmetic of adding the target (an Israel-bound jet with ~160 Jewish passengers), the method (a stabbing), the location (right on the doorstep of Israeli airspace), the timing (amid a surge of shootings, stabbings, and arson against Jewish targets worldwide), and the history (Palestinian-linked groups have hijacked or attacked airliners ~28 times since 1968, though the last was in 1996, and not kamikaze-style).

Now, we say that’s the lead theory because, pending any pilot confession or Saudi confirmation, the other plausible theory is murder-suicide. That’s rare, though not as rare as you might think: in fact, a Bloomberg investigation found it caused ~18% of aviation deaths in Western-built jets between 2011 and 2020!

But keep in mind those stats are warped both by a) a low denominator (aviation deaths are rare), and b) three mass-casualty numerators: 2013’s deliberate LAM Mozambique crash into Namibia, 2014’s mysterious MH370 disappearance, and 2015’s deliberate Germanwings crash into the Alps.

Plus the facts (if not yet the formal conclusions) are increasingly pointing to at least another two examples over the past four years: 2022’s China Eastern crash in Guangxi, and maybe Air India’s 2025 crash near Ahmedabad.

Throw in the fact aviation gurus like Dr Alejandra Gentil were already warning about the operational and mental pressure on non-unionised Gulf crews, and maybe the guy snapped? That could also fit with the fact he didn’t seem to be targeting any particular building (though the Israeli passengers alone could’ve been the target).

Or… this could also be a combo of both theories: a radicalised pilot snapped?

But while we await clearer answers on the above, the regional ripples are already, um, rippling — as we’ll explore below.

Sound even smarter:

• FlyDubai has announced it’s temporarily halting flights to and from Israel.

• Dr Alejandra Gentil is one of several aviation gurus we’re fortunate to have in the Intrigue group-chat. Become an Insider and join the conversation.