The Trump-Putin summit: who wins?
Let's get you a quick primer ahead of this Friday's surprise Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.
Why now? Trump made the announcement on Friday, the same day his peace-or-sanctions deadline on Putin was set to expire. It was a response to a proposal Putin relayed to Trump's envoy (Witkoff) in Moscow on Wednesday.
✌️Proposal✌️ might be a bit generous, and there's some confusion on the details (Witkoff doesn't usually bring embassy note-takers with him), but Putin seems to be demanding…
a) Ukraine's withdrawal from its own (fortified) Luhansk and Donetsk regions plus broad recognition of all Putin's illegal annexations, in return for
b) Putin ceasing his attacks on Ukraine's Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Kremlin aides are pushing back on reports of any possible ‘land swap' (which might’ve stemmed from a Witkoff misunderstanding) — to the contrary, word is Putin is offering no withdrawal, and his aims seem unchanged (a disarmed, neutral, and pliant Ukraine).
So let's take a quick world tour to see how this looks for each leader, starting with…
🇷🇺 Putin
If true, this is shaping up as a dream outcome for Putin. He's "offering" something he himself desperately needs: a pause after barely taking 0.6% of Ukraine's territory last year at staggering cost. And in return, he’s demanding something that 1,265 days and a million Russian casualties haven't yet achieved: full control of Ukraine’s Donbas.
On top of that, Putin also gets: a) the credibility of a meeting with a US president, that's b) taking place not just on any US soil, but specifically on c) turf Russia once sold to the US — ie, living proof that borders change (some Russian nationalists want Alaska back).
White House officials have flagged Ukraine's Zelensky could join too, though the Kremlin is rejecting that until “certain conditions” are met. So rather than (say) the White House using a POTUS meeting as a carrot to bring parties together, Putin wants Friday to…
d) sideline Ukraine and its European allies
e) cast Ukraine's self-defence as the obstacle to Trump's peace dream, and so…
f) again avoid US sanctions, while maybe further eroding US support for Ukraine.
It's hard to see any cons for the Kremlin here, perhaps because most cons are for...
🇺🇦 Zelensky
The Ukrainian president is choosing his words carefully to avoid getting re-painted as the problem here, but Putin is making demands he knows Zelensky can’t accept.
It’s a calculated wedge, dividing Zelensky between a) Ukraine’s own major constitutional and political hurdles to ceding land, and yet b) a chunk of Ukraine’s own population really also just wanting the war to end. It also withholds the thing Zelensky truly needs: some kind of guarantee Putin won’t just use any pause to re-arm, re-group, then attack again.
Putin hopes this pressure at home, plus any international isolation he can engineer from Alaska, tilts the chessboard back in his favour. So for now, Zelensky is reiterating that "Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier", while seeking support from...
🌍 Europe
Vice President Vance co-hosted European officials at the UK’s Chevening House on Saturday, leading to a joint statement from seven European leaders mostly reiterating their existing support for Ukraine, though including this intriguing line: "Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire or reduction of hostilities."
Translation: a ceasefire is not some Russian bargaining chip to extract more Ukrainian land, but rather a precondition for any meaningful negotiations to even take place.
Behind closed doors, the Europeans are again reportedly urging that any turf concessions must be reciprocal, and backed by meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine.
So all in all, it seems we’re now hurtling towards a leader summit despite leader positions remaining unchanged.
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