The top 3 takeaways from this year’s COP climate talks
Just before the sun began to rise over Baku yesterday morning (Sunday), nearly 200 countries finally 'agreed' on a deal to wrap this year's rather shouty COP climate talks. And even that single introductory sentence needs a quick glossary:
The deal arrived 'finally', because the summit was due to end ~30 hours earlier
The sassy air quotes around ✌️agreed✌️ are because major players like India and Nigeria say they never even got a chance to speak on the final draft, and
It was all rather 'shouty' because this Cop was marked by boycotts, walk-outs, boos, near-collapse, and our personal favourite: passive-aggressive coughing.
So what was all the drama about? Climate talks can seem dull at times, so we hereby present to you the three key issues from Baku, structured (because why not) via some choice Tom Cruise quotes:
"Help me, help you" - Jerry Maguire (1996)
The biggest argument this Cop was around a New Collective Quantified Goal, to replace the 2009 pledge rich countries made to put $100B each year towards helping poorer countries cut their emissions (by building out more clean energy, for example). That pledge is already due to expire next year, so the debate in Baku? What comes next:
Poorer countries wanted to quintuple the last deal to $500B per year or more, citing research that the full scale of the task needs at least $1T each year
But richer players said this wasn't realistic given everything going on (debt, deficit, wars, etc), plus major players like China and the Saudis had to chip in, too.
The result? Negotiators agreed on “at least” $300B per year by 2035, and they only got that over the line by a) adding the words "at least" (to keep poorer countries happy), while also b) skipping key details (like who pays what) to keep the richer countries happy.
That's a tripling of current arrangements, but many developing and island nations aren't happy. The final text also includes a loose call to raise $1.3T each year by 2035, though it's vague on where the cash comes from (everything from loans to investments).
"Max, I do this for a living" - Collateral (2002)
You might recall last year's COP talks in the UAE made history when the world committed to "transition away" from coal, oil and gas. This year, the idea was to flesh out that commitment a little more.
But the result? The final text barely makes the meekest reference to last year's pledge, and with absolute Swiss levels of neutrality. What happened? The Saudis are the world's top oil exporters, so they were peeved about last year, which also happened to be hosted by their key regional rivals, the Emiratis. So this year, the Saudis blocked any real reference to the 2023 deal. As finicky as this seems, it matters: a year after pledging to “transition away” from fossil fuels, the world (via Riyadh) has now seemingly pretended it never happened.
"Mission accomplished" - Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (2011)
There’s far too much punctuation and self-referentiality in a single 2000s-era movie reference here, but it’s necessary for what was arguably the biggest success of this Cop, from way back on day one: countries finalised Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. But… didn't countries sign the Paris Agreement a decade ago, you ask? Yes. But they couldn't agree on some details, including around carbon markets, which basically allow firms to keep polluting if they buy permits that then help finance other green projects:
Critics have long argued carbon markets have been too opaque and full of loopholes, allowing dirty corporates to greenwash themselves, but
Advocates say they offer a debt-free way to finance the world's mass transition to green energy.
Article 6 was meant to resolve this debate by agreeing on some basic carbon market rules, but negotiations kept stalling. So the Azerbaijanis rammed a final text through on day one, meaning the Paris Agreement is now fully agreed, just a casual decade or so after the world first signed it.
So to conclude? Don’t let any of this get you down, dear Intriguer. As Tom Cruise says in Vanilla Sky (2001), “every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around.”
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This has all played out in a year that’s already been historic for a few reasons:
First, researchers say we're now on track for our hottest year on record, with a global average temperature of 1.54C above the pre-industrial baseline. That means we should expect more of what we’ve already seen this year, whether it’s Spain’s worst-in-memory floods, Latin America’s worst-ever drought, or beyond.
But second, our world is also on track to exceed $2T in total clean energy investment for the first time ever. That's two thirds of all energy investment, and it's largely happening because it just makes sense (though big Cop pledges also send a meaningful signal for investors to keep going), and
Third, there’s also the return of a Cop-sceptic Donald Trump to the White House, which, yes, has nudged some major players to tap the brakes this Cop. But others (like the EU, Norway, Mexico, and beyond) have responded by committing to new emissions cuts in an effort to fill any US leadership void. And interestingly, some poorer countries even seem to have eventually accepted this Cop’s final ‘take it or leave it’ deal, precisely because they were persuaded that these talks will only get tougher under Trump 2.0.
Also worth noting:
Next year's COP host is Brazil.
For 2026 hosting duties, there's still a duel between Australia (together with Pacific Island nations) and Turkey. Australia argues it's time for a change, given four out of the last five Cops have been in the Middle East / Central Asia, and 23 out of all 29 have been in the northern hemisphere. Turkey agrees it's time for a change, but says Australia would add to the string of Cop hosts doubling as major fossil fuel exporters (after Egypt, the UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil).