The message in China’s ballistic test

It's an exciting day, because we've been leaked a draft of the opening scene for the next Bond film!

FADE IN: Somewhere beneath the waves off China's coast, a submarine lurks. A hatch opens. A nuclear-capable ballistic missile (with a dummy warhead… for now) erupts from the deep and arcs ~7,300km across the ocean, roughly the distance from Moscow to New York, before splashing down in international waters near Tuvalu, Nauru, and Kiribati.

CUT TO: Beijing, 59 minutes later. Xinhua declares success and celebrates its nuclear triad being "upgraded again". As the world's media begins to freak out, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson slyly tells them not to "overinterpret" the day's events.

ROLL THEME SONG: “For Your EEZs Only.”

Amazon's lawyers (yes, they own Bond now) can relax: that's no script. At 12:01pm on Monday, China really did fire its first-ever nuclear-capable submarine-launched missile across the Pacific (and its first announced submarine launch since 1988).

But you don't read Intrigue for fake entertainment-industry leaks, so let's take a look at what message Beijing's very real ballistic missile test was designed to send:

🇺🇸 To Washington

China's previous sub-launched tests were short lobs into its own coastal seas. A long-range shot across the Pacific sends a very different message: the submarine leg of China's nuclear arsenal works, and can credibly reach the US mainland.

Now to be clear, nuclear powers test missiles all the time. The US fired four Tridents in a single week last September. But the difference is process: for example, the US gives Moscow 24 hours' warning under a 1988-era pact.

China's only such pact is with Russia (a 2009 deal covering missiles fired toward each other); with the US it has nothing. One US official said Monday's heads-up came mere hours in advance, with detail "falling considerably short of standards adopted by all other P5 nuclear weapon states".

As for the timing? The test came right in the middle of RIMPAC (the US-led naval exercises desperately in need of a new acronym), and on the same day China kicked off its annual naval drills with Russia.

🇦🇺 To Canberra

Hours before the launch, Australian PM Anthony Albanese and Fijian PM Sitiveni Rabuka were in Suva signing two historic documents:

• The Vuvale Union, ("Vuvale" is Fijian for "family") an A$1B+ (~US$690m) everything-treaty covering trade, climate, labour mobility, and more.

• The Ocean of Peace Alliance, Fiji's first military alliance in its history and Australia's fourth ever, complete with an ANZUS-style mutual defence clause and an open door for Tonga, PNG, and New Zealand.

Ever since the 2022 China-Solomon Islands security pact set a cat among the pigeons, Canberra has been on a Pacific treaty spree, signing five Pacific treaties in 32 months, or roughly one every 200 days (pour one out for the sleep schedules of our friends in DFAT's Pacific Division)!

But here's the spicy bit: Fiji's defence minister told the ABC he'd warned China's embassy against the test. The test was long planned, but Beijing knew the signing date well in advance (diplomatically or espionage-ally), and fired that day anyway.

Beijing was clearly signalling its displeasure at a region that is seemingly tilting back towards Australia.

🏝️ To Pacific Island nations

The splashdown landed inside the Rarotonga Treaty's nuclear-free zone which is legally fine (the treaty bans nuclear explosions), but that's a relief only to the wonkiest of think tankers.

The Pacific's smallest states have spent years trying to build collective rules, culminating in the Ocean of Peace declaration, which asks every powerful country to keep their militarisations out of their moana.

To Beijing's credit, it softened the blow a little. When China last launched in 2024 (a land-fired test), no Pacific Island government got a heads-up (the Japanese and Philippine coast guards were apparently told to expect "space debris"). This time, several regional governments, Fiji among them, got advance warning.

That’s why their replies are so interesting:

• Fiji merely "acknowledged" the Chinese notification.

• PNG's Marape "respectfully appealed" that this be the last test by anyone, pointedly including the US, France, Japan, and the UK.

• Vanuatu, which has friendly relations with Beijing, said it was "deeply troubled".

• Tuvalu, right near where China aimed its test missile (hint: Tuvalu recognises rival Taiwan), registered its "grave and serious concern and disappointment."

• And Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale, this year's Pacific Islands Forum chair, and whose country signed the region's only security pact with Beijing back in 2022, said: "China's a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does."

The Forum's 18 members are now drafting a rare joint statement in response. The Australian ABC's Stephen Dziedzic predicts it'll get "watered down as consensus on this subject will be tricky."

Sound even smarter:

• Pacific Islands Forum leaders will meet in Palau, Aug 30–Sep 4, where Taiwan also returns to the Forum dialogue after its 2025 exclusion.

• One former PLA professor predicts (per The Economist) that China will test an air-launched ballistic missile within a year to publicly demonstrate the full ‘nuclear triad’.