The geopolitics of the Trump-Musk split

There’s now another entry etched into the pantheon of history's break-ups. Outta the way Brangelina (2016), Bennifer (2004 & 2024), and Haylor (2013). It’s time for Edon (2025).

When the Hollywood version drops, the first act will wrap with an upbeat montage (to Walking on Sunshine by Katrina & the Waves) as Elon Musk and Donald Trump campaign together, cut waste together, meet presidents together, and even hawk Teslas together.

But right around the second act turning point, it’ll all fall in a heap as a) Musk calls the president's budget bill a pork-filled abomination, b) Trump argues Musk just wanted DC's EV subsidies, and c) Musk then threatens to ditch critical SpaceX contracts the US needs.

Then as we approach the film's climax, just as we're wondering if these two might find a way to make up, and whether there's still time to swing by Chipotle on the way home, Elon publicly aims to link (in a tweet now deleted) the president of the United States with the crimes of the notorious Jeffrey Epstein. Roll credits. Get to Chipotle before it closes.

But that's where Intrigue comes in. This is not just E! News stuff, but really a significant geopolitical event that foreign capitals will be tracking closely. Here are three reasons why:

1. 👨‍💻 US tech vs political power

At the heart of Trump 2.0's campaign was an alliance between his populist base and Musk's brand of broligarch: Trump leveraged Musk's money, platform, and talents, while Musk gained proximity to (and therefore influence over) the heart of US political power.

But that alliance has now ruptured, and in doing so, it’s arguably illustrating in the US the same trend we've long tracked elsewhere: tech is a globalising force in a de-globalising world, and governments are reasserting themselves in response. President Trump is not Silicon Valley's guy. He's Trump's guy. And with that now laid bare, this fact will (or should) shape ties between the Valley and the White House ahead, including in other fights like…

2. 🇪🇺 US tech vs the world

That Trump-Valley alliance was partly seen as a strategic move by tycoons hoping a more sympathetic White House might take a more assertive stance in pushing back on (say) the EU's regulation of US data, content, and tech market dominance.

But while the EU has continued to fine US tech firms, the alliance driving America’s assertive response might've now crumbled. So as the president negotiates with dozens of capitals around trade, defence, and beyond, will he continue to prioritise extracting more US-friendly tech regulations? Or will he trade all that away for other US priorities like…

3. 🚀 US space vs the world

In what’s widely seen as a response to the president’s falling-out with Musk, Trump has also withdrawn his nomination of Musk ally Jared Isaacman to head up NASA. And that’s not just about Musk losing an ally at the head of an agency critical to his own SpaceX venture. Rather, it leaves NASA in limbo at a critical crossroad between:

• a) doubling-down on NASA's costly and delayed legacy programs like Artemis and the Space Launch System, or

• b) pivoting towards more of a SpaceX-inspired model promising to unleash more US start-ups to advance US leadership to Mars and beyond.

Isaacman was vowing to steer things more towards option b, but instead, NASA now continues to tread water between the two while facing 25% budget cuts ahead, right as China continues its own race towards a moon landing and a Starlink rival by 2030.

While political infighting consumes US attention at home, the world just keeps spinning.