The geopolitics of a funeral

17 days after Senator Graham (71) died of a sudden aortic tear, his nation has now laid him to rest via two invite-only, heavily-fortified events in DC: a morning tribute in the Capitol Rotunda, followed by a 2pm service at the National Cathedral.

But behind all the solemn protocol sat a startling array of international dignitaries. Why were they there, and what does this reveal about our world? Let’s start with...

• 🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky

It’s no secret how Graham felt about Putin's invasion — the Republican lawmaker had only just returned from his 10th visit to Kyiv since 2022, as one of America's last high-profile Senate hawks still reliably flexing bipartisan muscle for Ukraine.

And sure enough, just hours after the funeral, the Senate held an initial symbolic vote on Graham’s cherished sanctions bill to hit Putin's top energy-buyers and further choke the Kremlin's war machine: China now buys half Russia's crude, and India another 36%. Guess who still buys 49% of Russia's LNG? Europe.

But that buyer list hints at why there's still a bit of unease on the Hill amid fears of more energy chaos, or irking swing players like India (a balance against China).

Anyway, Zelensky used his White House meeting to keep President Trump engaged, and now returns home with news Trump's envoys (Witkoff and Kushner) will finally visit Kyiv after eight (!) Witkoff pilgrimages to Moscow — another sign Trump’s orbit (and Putin’s leverage) might be softening.

Then barely six minutes after Zelensky departed, another motorcade pulled into the South Portico, and out hopped...

• 🇮🇱 Benjamin Netanyahu

We actually just saw a rare Bibi-Zelensky chat in the funeral pews: Israel has long been wary of publicly backing Ukraine for fear of both a) inviting Russian hostility, and b) diluting US support. That’s why this funereal chat, plus notable new bonhomie among their two foreign ministers, has fuelled speculation of a possible Ukraine-Israel rapprochement. But we'll believe that when it goes beyond words.

As for Bibi's funeral attendance? That's no surprise — Israel’s security was Graham's other foreign policy passion. But the timing is precarious: a record 60% of Americans now have an unfavourable view of Israel; barely one in three Americans now support Trump's war on arch-rival Iran; and half of Americans now believe the US should actually arrest Netanyahu over Israel's actions in Gaza!

You can see that shift in Trump too: the White House has been rebuffing Bibi's recent meeting requests, and Trump himself just used a Fox appearance to dunk on the Israeli leader: responding to reports Netanyahu would bring intel that Iran is rebuilding its Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility, the US president was dismissive, warning "Bibi's telling me that because he wants me to stay involved."

Meanwhile, Iran itself might've just done a better job at keeping Trump engaged: just as DC’s mourners were filing home, the mullahs launched a surprise ballistic attack targeting US forces in Jordan (which says it intercepted them all).

And sitting just a few rows back was the man hoping to replace that regime entirely...

• 🇮🇷 Reza Pahlavi

Iran's exiled crown prince has faded from the headlines, both as Iran's regime-collapse scenarios appear more distant, but also as some of his own émigré supporters baulk at his silence on (say) Trump’s “back to the Stone Age” rhetoric.

But Senator Graham was always one of Pahlavi's most prominent congressional backers. And Pahlavi has now used a WaPo oped to argue the feeling was mutual, describing the senator’s Amoo Lindsey (Uncle Lindsey) nickname among Iranians as evidence of their high regard for his long-standing opposition to the regime.

But with this war clearly not going to plan (assuming there still is one at this point), Pahlavi’s attendance at Graham's funeral is also now a low-cost way to keep the "friend of the Iranian people" narrative alive until local fortunes change.

Now from Iranian opposition dreams to NATO's northern flank via...

• 🇫🇮 Alexander Stubb

Finland's well-groomed leader ended up not just a friend of Graham (Stubb played college golf in the senator’s native South Carolina), but it was actually Graham who fostered the famous Stubb-Trump golf bromance. And we flag this not because we care about their handicap, but because that's really how Stubb became a critical, pro-NATO confidant countering some of DC’s more Moscow-accommodating voices.

The Finn’s presence back in DC now comes at a crucial time, giving him another shot at highlighting recent European burden-shifting successes, right as Trump 2.0 continues to openly mull America’s longer-term presence across the continent.

Now several pews back, and from one theatre of competition to another...

• 🇹🇼 Alexander Yui

Taiwan's de-facto ambassador was there to pay respects to a senator who famously declared that, "to abandon Taiwan would be to abandon freedom itself" — that was while co-leading a bipartisan co-del for his third and final Taiwan visit in 2022.

But with Trump 2.0 now giving increasingly transactional vibes on Taiwan, the democratic island is finding itself more reliant on congressional champions to safeguard the US commitments enshrined in DC's 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. Graham’s absence will hurt.

Then sitting right there next to Yui was...

• 🇸🇦 Yasir al-Rumayyan

The head of Saudi Arabia's $1.2T sovereign wealth fund just hosted Senator Graham in February, though the senator actually had a pretty volatile relationship with the kingdom: excoriating its 2018 assassination of Khashoggi and publicly scolding the Saudis over their escalating spat with the Emiratis, but then heavily pushing a US-Saudi defence pact tied to Saudi recognition of Israel.

So Al-Rumayyan's attendance on behalf of his own crown prince? It’s another low-cost way for the kingdom to keep the channel warm while (like the rival Emiratis) exploring a possible rapprochement with a resilient Iran amid US fatigue.

Anyway, if the pews offered a snapshot of a US-led world Graham fought to uphold, maybe the corridors offer a glimpse into how rapidly that world might now get rewritten.

Sound even smarter:

• Graham’s sanctions bill would target the top five individual nations (rather than any bloc like the EU) buying Russian crude and natural gas. Capitals can avoid the proposed gas-related sanctions if their imports are <15% of Russia’s total sales, and are taking “significant steps” to reduce that dependency.