The ceasefire that wasn’t?

Nobody likes a told-you-so, but barely minutes after yesterday’s briefing flagged real doubts about this ceasefire, the ol’ foes had already started trading breach accusations.

The first? Israel vs Hezbollah (in Lebanon).

Despite the deal’s Pakistani mediators tweeting that this truce is “everywhere”, Israel (with US backing) insisted Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon are still fair game.

And to prove the point, the Israelis launched their biggest offensive of the war, claiming 100+ hits within 10 minutes across southern Lebanon and up into southern Beirut’s Hezbollah strongholds, leaving hundreds reported dead and wounded.

So right there you have quite the wrinkle:

• Israel won’t hold back against an Iran-backed group whose founding manifesto explicitly declares its “struggle will end only when Israel is obliterated”, and yet…

• Iran insists any ceasefire must cover Hezbollah — the regime’s credibility rests on protecting its proxies, while its deterrence rests on them remaining credible.

Meanwhile, US VP Vance has framed it all as a "legitimate misunderstanding", which seems more like a phrase Chili’s might use after getting caught serving you a weak margarita.

But whether an innocent misunderstanding or a calibrated loophole, it’s tough timing for Lebanon’s newish Maronite Christian president, ex-army chief Joseph Aoun.

Why? Some quick reminders about his ascendance to the presidency last year.

First, his rise was itself a miracle after nearly three years of parliamentary deadlock driven by a Hezbollah veto deeply woven into Lebanon’s political and sectarian fabric.

But second, his rise was also arguably the culmination of a 20-year strategy, with the US quietly co-financing Lebanon’s military to extend state control and pry Hezbollah out of its chokehold over Lebanese affairs. Sure enough, as the military became Lebanon’s most respected institution, its leader (Aoun) became one of the country’s most popular figures.

And so now, just as Lebanon’s historically popular and powerful new president a) moves to legally ban Hezbollah military activities, and b) calls for unprecedented talks with Israel to coordinate his military replacing Hezbollah along the Israeli border…

The Israel-Hezbollah war flares right back up again!

All that background to say… these latest Israeli strikes put Aoun in a bind, caught between an angry public saying he’s too soft on Israel, a defiant Hezbollah refusing to disarm, and a resurgent Israel sensing an opportunity to just forcibly disarm Hezbollah itself.

And it’s all playing out against simmering sectarian tensions that could just plunge the country back into another Lebanon vs Lebanon conflict.

That now takes us to the other front in this war: Iran vs the US.

With Iran arguing its ceasefire rests on an Israel-Hezbollah truce, the regime is now actively calling for either a full ceasefire or a return to war, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in the meantime: and sure enough, not a single oil tanker has cleared Hormuz since this ✌️ceasefire✌️ started (just four cargo vessels have made it out).

And this all in turn puts both old foes in a bind:

• Does the US care enough about Hormuz to resume its hits on Iran? And…

• Does Iran care enough about Hezbollah to resume its hits on the US and partners?

Our gut, even with costs and fatigue rising, is the answer to both questions is still yes.