Something's moving in Myanmar's forests

There are corporate glow-ups, like when BackRub became Google. There are celeb rebrands, like when Snoop Dogg became Snoop Lion. And there are even national revamps, like when Swaziland became Eswatini.

But can dictators do a makeover? Let’s ask the place formerly known as Burma (Myanmar).

It’s been in a brutal civil war since the generals snatched power back from the elected Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. The junta then crushed protests, only to lose ~half the country as ethnic groups took up arms in a war that’s displaced millions, destabilised the region, and left power vacuums that human traffickers and cyber-scammers still exploit today.

Nice move, generals.

But with arms and intel support from Moscow and Beijing, the junta has since managed to stabilise the front and regain turf, bringing us back to a ~year ago today: that’s when the junta’s top general scored a very special handshake in Moscow with… China’s Xi Jinping! He even scored an invite to see Xi again in Beijing, three months later.

The significance: a top leader? Shaking hands with General Min Aung Hlaing himself?

C’mon. This was China signalling to the world that the junta is now Myanmar’s legitimate government, and it’s time for everyone else to get on board. The junta then went on to…

• ✌️hold elections✌️, and

• ✌️reach out to the opposition✌️.

It was enough for China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Cambodia, Thailand, India, and Laos to send congrats when General Min swore himself in as president last month.

But nobody else was buying the regime’s Botox until this week, when Thailand announced it’s now pushing to bring Myanmar’s foreign minister back into the regional ASEAN fold.

So… Myanmar’s back on the path of democracy, all good?

Not quite. Those sassy air quotes above are because the regime only…

• a) held elections in regime strongholds

• b) with regime-approved candidates, and so…

• c) the ASEAN regional bloc has refused to recognise the result.

Those air quotes are also because of the mystery around Myanmar’s democratically-elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi (80). After more than five years, the generals finally moved her from prison to house arrest, but her family says nobody’s actually seen her!

So it’s now shaping up as a fork in the world’s Myanmar road, with the Philippines (as ASEAN chair) demanding the bloc’s special envoy get to meet her in person:

• 👌 If the regime agrees, it’ll bolster those (like Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia) arguing the junta is playing ball, and it’s therefore time to let them back in.

• ⛔ If the regime refuses, it’ll bolster those (like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore) still rejecting this regime’s attempt at a makeover.

BackRub becoming Google was a genuine upgrade. Swaziland to Eswatini was more cosmetic. But this junta rebrand in Myanmar? It still feels very beta.