So who won the US-Iran war?

After 107 days of will-they-won't-they, Iran and the US now say they just did. It’s all moving rapidly among heavy spin, so we’ve pieced recent days together to present...

🕊️ What we know

The US and Iran have agreed an interim deal to end their war, with a ceremony set for this Friday in Geneva. Until then, these two foes say a deal is already in force, including for an immediate end to the fighting, and an immediate end to the Hormuz blockade!

So that's that, right? Well maybe no, that's not that, because...

🇺🇸 The US also claims…

• a) Hormuz now goes back to being "toll free"

• b) "there will be no nuclear weapons in Iran"

• c) there will be only limited sanctions relief for Iran, and

• d) Iran will get no money (ie, no unfrozen funds) upfront.

And that's pretty intriguing because…

🇮🇷 Iran claims...

• a) Hormuz will only reopen "under Iranian arrangements" (with Oman)

• b) those "arrangements" mean Iran's "sword” will now hover over Hormuz forever while it charges protection money a fee for "services rendered"

• c) sanctions relief includes immediate oil revenues, an initial $12B in unfrozen funds, another $12B in 60 days, plus word of a $300B reconstruction fund, and

• d) it also means an immediate end to Israel-Hezbollah fighting (though Israel has cautioned it’s not party to any US-Iran deal, and made this clear by launching more Hezbollah strikes just as Trump was drafting his big peace tweet).

So right there you can see some pretty, pretty, pretty big gaps between US, Israeli, and Iranian claims, or at least their domestic spin. And that's before we look at what we don't yet know, including on some minor issues, like, I don't know....

Nukes? Trump has warned the US will restart attacks if Iran doesn’t reach a nuclear agreement soon, implying there's no deal yet. But Iran is still only reiterating its long-running pledge not to get nukes, based on an old fatwa that was never written down and is still subject to the mullahs’ maslahat (‘greater good’) theology of regime expediency.

Oh, and as for a) how that pledge gets verified, b) what happens in a breach, and c) the fate of Iran's uranium enrichment and stockpiles? All deferred to talks within 60 days. Then what about…

Missiles? There’s also silence around Iran's missile range, stockpiles, and production, and Iran has long treated its entire program as non-negotiable anyway. Why? Ask its battered neighbours what the regime’s theoretical doctrine of deterrence has now meant in practice for the region’s airports, energy infrastructure, tourist attractions, national icons, desal plants, and general hub status. There’s also a big question mark around…

Proxies? The regime’s red-lines are similar to its missiles approach above: do as we say or our missiles friends will hit you. But is there anything stopping Iran from again using its oil sales and unfrozen funds to prop up and expand groups like Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), the Houthis (Yemen) or the dozen+ others across the region? That’s unclear.

So, all that to note… amid all the coming victory laps, keep in mind this entire announcement is still younger than Zendaya, shorter than DeVito, and hazier than Ye.

Sound even smarter:

• Israel’s Netanyahu has yet to issue a post-deal comment, though his defence minister (Katz) is reiterating Israel will hold “indefinitely” the Lebanese turf seized while pursuing Hezbollah, and his natsec minister (Ben-Gvir) is reiterating this US-Iran deal doesn’t bind Israel (though Ben-Gvir is from another party and has a history of rogue lines to rally his base).

• Anger in India continues to swirl around last week’s US strikes that left three Indian nationals dead aboard a tanker seeking to break the US blockade. The foreign minister (Jaishankar) called Rubio about it on Friday.

• Markets were already pricing in their deal hopes, but watch for lower oil prices and higher equities today (Monday) once trading resumes. Lower oil prices will also mean more pain for Putin ahead.