The Xi-Putin summit: who wants what

Sometimes when two world leaders visit you back-to-back, the timing is mere coincidence.

Other times, one leader is suddenly showing up after the other, like the ex who heard you had company.

Today's Putin-Xi summit in Beijing falls more into category two: Putin is now paying his 25th visit to China, theoretically to mark the anniversary of the big 2001 Sino-Russia treaty.

But that 'theoretically' is doing some heavy lifting, so let's look at what these two frenemies really want, starting with...

• What Putin wants:

With Putin having burnt his economy, demographics, and global standing in a failing attempt to invade his smaller neighbour, he's now realistically the junior partner in what the two infamously described as a 'no-limits' friendship shortly before Putin invaded.

So it's realistically Putin now landing in Beijing with the longer list of asks, starting with...

• Reassurance: he wants visible reassurance that any Trump-Xi thaw doesn't sideline him — that "look at my powerful friends" signal is useful at home, in Ukraine, across the West, and beyond. But he also wants specific reassurance on anything Xi and Trump touched on Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, and beyond — eg, Beijing denies reports Xi said Putin might regret Ukraine. Putin also needs...

• Reinforcement: he’s already had China’s steady diplomatic cover, flows of dual-use tech, and machine tools that've helped Putin's war machine keep humming amid Western sanctions. There are also now breaking reports China has covertly trained Russian troops on drone tech. And yet Putin realistically now also needs...

• Revenue: He’s dreamt of a massive Sino-Russia gas pipeline for decades, though only got his first Power of Siberia pipeline delivering gas to China in late 2019. Then once Europe went ~cold-turkey on Russian gas over Ukraine, Putin revived his Xi talks for a second pipeline to double sales asap.

And yet… Xi has been stiffing Putin on every term: price, financing, flexibility, and timeline. They just signed a non-binding MOU in September, and maybe the Hormuz crisis has forced a dash of flexibility from Xi. But even if the two sign an actual commercial contract this week, no new gas will flow until well into the 2030s, which is time Putin simply doesn't have.

So who does have time...?

• What Xi wants:

Xi has already got something: Putin is now the third world leader to visit in a week, and the ~12th this year (#13 is Serbia next week). The optics of that alone already point to Xi’s "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", back to the centre of the world after its century of humiliation by meddling powers.

But what does Xi specifically want from Putin...?

• Balance: Xi wants to keep Putin usefully dependent as a strategic junior partner, but he needs to balance that against a) getting dragged into Putin's mess, and b) letting their 'no-limits' friendship poison Xi's attempt to stabilise US ties. Relatedly, Xi also wants...

• Ballast: As diminished as Putin may be, he's still a major nuclear and naval player with a veto on the UN Security Council. So there's value in keeping him aligned with Xi's evolving vision for a post-US-led world order, whether that means joint statements, coordinated pushback, or symbolic support. But Xi clearly also wants...

• Bargains: Xi is already getting Putin's initial Siberian gas at a ~38% discount to Europe, but he wants even steeper discounts via this planned new Power of Siberia 2: ie, closer to the subsidised prices Russians pay at home, approaching a ~50% discount on Power of Siberia 1, and a ~70% discount compared to Europe!

So Xi is really screwing Putin here, and it goes beyond energy: China now supplies ~57% of all Russia's imports (!), charging massive mark-ups on critical inputs Putin can’t get elsewhere: ball-bearing prices have doubled, while prices on some other sanctioned items (like fibre optics) have even quadrupled! Any local suppliers left? They get rinsed.

So to recap? Always applaud outstanding alliteration everywhere:

• Putin needs reassurance, reinforcement, and revenue, while

• Xi wants balance, ballast, and bargains.