The war’s 4 splits to watch

As this war enters its 10th day, here are four possible splits to watch, starting with...

1. US and Israel?

Another alliance wedge might've now emerged amid the weekend's devastating airstrikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, sparking massive fires, acid rain, and toxic smoke across Tehran.

The split? While the US was reportedly in the loop, it's still voicing shock at the scale of this escalation towards Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure. Why? It shifts local hardship from regime-blame to US/Israel-blame, potentially prolonging both the regime and war.

But it also hints at divergence in US-Israeli aims: the Israelis have always seen this regime (of "death to Israel" fame) as an existential threat, trumping any chaos or blowback.

Yet DC's aim has more been to a) de-fang Iran and normalise Israel so the US can pivot elsewhere; plus b) Trump is now describing November's mid-terms in existential terms. And neither aim now looks easy amid the world's biggest energy shock since ~1979.

2. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vs the rest?

Meanwhile, the regime has now confirmed Khamenei Jr is Iran’s new supreme leader: pending any Israeli assassination, that’s a classic wartime signal of unity, continuity, and even defiance, though keep in mind there's always nuance beneath the surface.

• First, it arguably proves IRGC supremacy rather than regime unity: by ramming through a mid-ranked cleric like Khamenei Jr, the IRGC has side-lined old-school regime powerbrokers like the Larijani brothers (natsec Ali and clerical Sadeq), and

• Second, by ramming through the ayatollah’s son, the IRGC might've breached its own revolutionary taboo against the exact kind of monarchic succession it replaced, potentially undermining whatever popular legitimacy it still retains.

So maybe this move strengthens the regime. Or maybe not.

3. Oil vs water?

With crude now up almost 70% in less than two weeks, recording the biggest intra-day price surge in almost half a century, oil understandably dominates the headlines.

But another liquid is rattling the region, too: Saturday’s hit on Iran's Qeshm desalination plant prompted an Iranian hit on a water desal facility in Bahrain the very next day (then just hours ago, the Iranians hit Bahrain’s main oil refinery).

The point? It looks like asymmetrical warfare against soft, high-impact targets to (say) force Iran's regime to talk, or force Bahrain (home to the US Fifth Fleet) to pressure the US.

But that's ultra-high stakes in a region where desal provides nearly all drinking water — we’re talking 90% for Kuwait, 86% for Oman, and 70% for the Saudis, for example. So if this tit-for-tat continues, you're potentially looking at mass city evacuations.

4. Kurd vs Kharg?

Now that Trump has ruled out a CIA-backed Kurdish op amid Turkish anger (vindicating Kurdish doubts around US reliability btw), there's a vibe shift to a Kharg Island strategy instead. The aim of using ground troops to seize Iran’s oil export terminal would be to deliver a coup de grâce that strangles the regime's cashflow and forces its capitulation.

There've also been similar "victory raid" rumours of a possible special ops mission to secure Iran's uranium, likewise enabling President Trump to declare victory and get out.

But while there are influencers out there arguing that seizing Kharg would be easy, it's the holding part that matters — just 25km (15mi) off Iran’s coast, this island is within regime artillery, missile, drone, and fast-boat range. And even if you do hold, that escalation doesn’t necessarily solve the actual problem, which is that maritime insurers are spooked.

So sure, maybe this kind of raid goes to plan, ends the war, and unblocks Hormuz. Or maybe it becomes yet another Middle East casualty and escalation trap for the US.