Guess who wants to run the UN

Given the state of both the world (most conflicts since WWII), and the UN (risking financial collapse), you might find it surprising there are now folks fighting to be the next UN boss — it’s almost giving “let me steer the Titanic” vibes.

But Portugal's Antonio Guterres wraps his tenure on Dec 31st, so let’s look at who’s next?

First, how it works: the real game happens at the UN’s all-powerful 15-member Security Council, which typically holds secret straw-polls from July to see who clears the hurdle: nine votes in favour, zero vetoes from the permanent five (aka the ‘P5’: 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷, 🇨🇳, 🇷🇺).

The Security Council then makes a ✌️recommendation✌️ by October, for the General Assembly to rubber-stamp. The new Titanic UN captain then starts on January 1st.

So let's start with the front-runner, which is still…

1. 🇦🇷 Rafael Grossi (~49% prediction market odds)

Argentina's 65-year-old career diplomat is no stranger to world's-toughest-jobs. Not because he was ever a crab fisherman in Alaska, but because he’s helmed the UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) since 2019, and won unanimous re-election in 2023.

Pros
The guy has a PhD, speaks seven (7!) languages, and has spent ~40 years on this stuff. He's clearly qualified. Annoyingly so, in fact. But more importantly, his nuclear role and relentless shuttle diplomacy means he's spent years building trust with the P5 who'll realistically decide his fate. But that also brings...

Cons
His hard (if accurate) line on Iran’s nuclear program — which fed into last year’s US-Israeli strikes — has drawn criticism from Russia and China, though more directed at alleged Western scheming rather than Grossi himself. But who else is there...?

2. 🇨🇷 Rebeca Grynspan (21%)

Costa Rica's 70-year-old ex-veep (1994-98) has stepped aside from running UNCTAD (helping poorer economies trade) to focus on her campaign, which brings us to her...

Pros
While there've been grumbles about Grossi juggling his campaign and nuke duties, Grynspan is now all-in. And while she’s also from Latin America (which by rotating tradition would get the next UN boss), Grynspan has another advantage: she's a woman.

Now, don't write us angry letters — we're just pointing out that this is a real factor for some capitals flagging it's time the UN had its first female leader. But then there's the...

Cons
Some argue the world needs a crisis-hardened operator like Grossi, though she really just needs none of the P5 to hate her, so her economist CV could be a plus! But what about…

3. 🇨🇱 Michelle Bachelet (15%)

Chile's 74-year-old two-time president (2006-10 and 2014-18) has quite the backstory, surviving torture during Chile's Pinochet era, plus a post-presidency career running two UN agencies (Women, Human Rights). So she's clearly got major...

Pros
As Latin America's only ex-president in the mix, she brings genuine gravitas and speaks five (5!) languages, while also appealing strongly to the Global South. But...

Cons
On her final day in office, she dropped a high-stakes UN Human rights report that…

• Flagged China might’ve committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang 🔥, but…

• The report didn’t fully contest China’s “vocational” framing of what the West saw as forced Uyghur internment camps 🔥.

Or to put it another way, in trying to please everyone, maybe Bachelet pleased no-one. To cap it off, her own country's new conservative leader (Kast) just yoinked support for the left-leaning Bachelet, who’s also facing similar opposition among US senators.

So that takes us to...

4. 🇸🇳 Macky Sall (10%)

Senegal's 64-year-old ex-leader (2012-24) is a wild-card.

Pros
His deep experience, five (!) languages, and regional heft could appeal to those wanting stronger and steadier Global South representation, but...

Cons
He fails both the LatAm and gender hurdles, and while his Burundi backing (African Union chair) was meant as a tactical workaround to seek African legitimacy, it just ended up highlighting divisions instead — 20+ African nations have come out against! Oops.

So let's wrap with...

5. 🇪🇨 Maria Fernanda Espinosa (5%)

Ecuador's ex-minister of foreign affairs (2007-08, 2018-18) and defence (2012-14) only just entered the race Tuesday via a nomination lodged by Antigua and Barbuda!

Pros?
As her country's first female UN ambassador (2008-09) and her region’s first female UN General Assembly president (2018-19), she clears key hurdles and has UN cred, but her biggest strength might just be the fact she's a relatively fresh face (61) with less baggage.

Cons
It's a late run, so she could pull a Stephen Bradbury (the Aussie ice-skater who won after the others fell), but it also means she's now got the least momentum and visibility.

The other thing is her association with Ecuador's polarising leftist ex-leader (Correa), which could be a problem for Trump 2.0 and even conservative Ecuador. That’d be one reason why she got nominated instead by Antigua, which loves her small state advocacy.

And... that's a wrap!