Is Putin losing?

Think your week got off to a rough start?

Barely days after the Kremlin vaguely blamed the ✌️current operational situation✌️ for the ✌️truncated format✌️ of Russia’s WWII victory day parade this coming Saturday, Ukraine suggested the real reason (fear) by landing a drone-strike on a nearby luxury high-rise.

So here are four numbers shaping Putin’s fortunes right now, starting with…

1. $38B

That’s the extra cash Putin stands to earn this year if Russia’s Urals crude (its main export blend) averages $75 per barrel, instead of the $59 he assumed in his official 2026 budget.

The current price? Iran’s energy chaos has pushed Urals above $110, meaning maybe an extra ~$100B for Putin’s war chest if (big if) prices can stay that high the rest of the year.

Obviously that kind of windfall helps Putin sustain his war and ignore any peace talks (conveniently evaporating with the US busy elsewhere), though it’s worth keeping in mind that a) even these higher prices barely stem his bleeding (Putin’s war now eats ~40% of Russia’s entire budget), and b) Ukraine’s recent drone strikes have already cut his refining output to Russia’s lowest levels since 2009!

2. 1,200 km

That’s the length of the Caspian Sea crossing between Russia’s Astrakhan and Iran’s Anzali, which started out as a way for Iran to send drones for Putin’s invasion. But that route dried up as Putin localised production, then it went into reverse amid the Iran war.

Within days, secret Russia-Iran talks had culminated in a Kremlin pledge to send Russian drones back to Iran as a way to prolong that war and dilute Western power.

That was until… Israel severed this link by hitting Iran’s Caspian port in March (something we pointed out a week before legacy media confirmed it 💅).

But the damage was already done… to Russia! The Emiratis are understandably livid that Putin was arming Iran against them. So if Putin ever feels confident enough to emerge from hiding, the Emiratis won’t be offering him the red carpet any time soon.

But you know who is getting that famous UAE welcome…?

3. 10 years

That’s the duration of the new defence cooperation pacts Ukraine’s Zelensky himself had already signed with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar by late March, selling his country’s hard-won expertise in countering Putin’s drones.

But the Ukrainians are going beyond countering at this point, manufacturing ~600k drones per month and using them (including a mysterious and silent new 'Martian’ variant) to claim hits not just on Putin’s energy infrastructure, but also his fighter jets, naval vessels, and even that luxury high-rise near the Kremlin. And that’s just last week!

4. 31.6 million

That’s how many times folks have now watched a viral video posted by Monaco-based Russian influencer Victoria Bonya. It’s a lot when you consider her message is entirely in Russian, and Instagram is banned in Russia (folks use VPNs). Titled An appeal to Vladimir Putin, from all caring Russians, it purports to focus on local Russian issues such as a bungled flood response, the environment, and even Putin’s Instagram ban.

But the intrigue is in her blunt words for Putin himself: “People are afraid of you”, she warns. “And this fear is creating a coiled spring. One day, that spring will release, and it won’t end well.”

She’s right.