Putin’s victory day in five lines

While his tanks stayed away and the guest list shrank like the kids in a 1980s Rick Moranis comedy, President Putin still emerged on Moscow's historic Red Square to declare triumph at Russia's WWII victory day parade on Saturday.

So here are his five lines you need to know, starting with...

1. “I congratulate you on Victory Day, our sacred, inspiring and most important holiday!”

It wasn't always Russia's most important day. In fact, the Soviets only hosted four (1945, 1965, 1985, and 1990) as a more sombre affair reflecting on their 27 million WWII dead.

Rather, it was Putin (after Yeltsin) who made victory day annual, then pumped it up. Why?

First, Russia lacked a unifying story after the Soviet collapse, and tapping WWII pride offered him a way to bypass the failures of communism and the chaos of the 1990s.

But also second, it helped Putin consolidate his grip on power by projecting strength, framing himself as that heroic generation's rightful heir, and tapping patriotism to paper over today's stagnation and corruption. But...

2. “We will always remember the feat of the Soviet people – the fact that it was they who made the decisive contribution to the defeat of Nazism"

All leaders get selective with history, but Putin takes it further here: he honours Russia’s WWII sacrifices while dunking on Hitler’s "obedient accomplices" in Europe, all while skipping over Stalin's 1939 pact with Hitler that helped unleash WWII in the first place.

Call us naïve (someone just did, btw), but national strength eventually requires facing uncomfortable truths, not airbrushing them away. Speaking of which...

3. "They are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. Despite this, our heroes are advancing.”

It’s a masterclass in reframing: "aggressive" inverts the fact it was Putin whose tanks entered Ukraine, while "entire NATO bloc" airbrushes out the collapse in US support.

But the wildest reframing is actually Putin's "advancing" word-choice, coming just days after his forces actually recorded their first monthly net territorial loss in years!

In fact, his war has now cost more soldiers than the US lost in all of WWII, and ~20 times what the Soviets lost trying to occupy Afghanistan for a decade.

Maybe that's why he later told journalists...

4. “I think that the matter is coming to an end"

That’s generating headlines because it's one of Putin's strongest public hints yet that his war could be entering its final phase, in a shift from earlier reiterations that he’d continue until he reaches his goals: the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.

So... is Putin close to achieving those goals? Ukraine's democratically-elected Zelensky is still not only in power, but his approval is back in the 60s. And rather than demilitarise, Ukraine is now hitting targets 1,600km (aka three Germanies end-to-end) deep into Russia.

So... how does Putin see this war ending?

5. “Of all European politicians, I would prefer talks with Schröder.”

LoL. Unfamiliar with Schröder's game? He was Germany's leader from 1998 until 2005, when he jumped near-instantly onto Russia's payroll via Nord Stream then Rosneft — he was earning a cool ~$1M per year at the peak from 2017 until he resigned in 2022 amid Putin's war (which he still hasn't condemned, btw).

But it’s not just cash — Schröder (82) and Putin are old pals, with Putin even attending Schröder’s 60th and 70th birthday bashes.

So suggesting peace talks with Schröder is absurd — that's like Zelensky saying he'd prefer peace talks with his own wife.

But does this offer still reveal anything? The mere hint at a possible ending arguably looks like an acknowledgement of war fatigue, while fishing around for an offramp that lets him pocket his gains. But this Schröder quip is also Putin still reiterating that any peace must be on his terms, which isn't really peace at all.

Meanwhile, by nominating a mediator that he knows no self-respecting capital could accept, he gets to again blame the West for stalling peace.