Putin’s latest ploy

If you ever had your home put up on Zillow while you were still living in it, that might be how Ukraine's Zelensky now feels in light of the Kremlin's big new idea.

Putin's core pitch? In addition to his big Trump diesel deal, Putin apparently also used that same Oct 9 phone call with the White House to propose:

• ♵ a Putin-Trump meeting together with China's Xi Jinping

• 📍 in the margins of the Shenzhen APEC summit

• 📅 on November 18-19th

• 🕊️ to discuss an end to the Russo-Ukraine war.

The kicker? Ukraine's Zelensky isn't invited, of course.

So while we await the White House's answer, we need to look at each player's underlying incentives here, starting with...

• 🇷🇺 Putin

Russia's long-time dictator is really trying to lock in a favourable deal while DC's sympathy is at a historic high, his own battlefield leverage remains low (see below), and before Europe’s evolving security posture hardens further.

So he'll want the world's two most powerful leaders (Trump and Xi) to endorse the 20% of Ukraine he's already taken, then present some kind of fait accompli to Ukraine: a permanent freeze at the current frontlines, permanent limits on Ukraine's ability to defend itself, and a swift rollback on Western sanctions.

But it's bigger than that: this new summit also a) fits Putin’s home branding as Russia's indispensable statesman, b) fits his foreign propaganda framing Zelensky as the obstacle to peace, c) sidelines Ukraine’s European friends, plus d) vaults the world back to a pre-WWII era when a handful of Big Men could carve up the world.

So okay 🤔, but how does any of that go down with...

• 🇨🇳 Xi

China's leader will actually have some mixed feels about all this given how much the messy status quo is really such a delicate sweet spot for him. He now enjoys…

• A USA distracted and diluted across Europe's east plus Iran, keeping those pesky US carrier groups away from any US-aligned democracies in East Asia (think Taiwan, the Philippines) still objecting to Xi’s territorial demands, plus

• Xi also gets to enjoy a junior partner (Putin) thoroughly weakened and isolated but still stable, maximising Moscow's utility as a source of cheap energy, border management, and post-US disruption.

But Xi will also be sorely tempted by that sweet sweet opportunity to play mediator and peacemaker on the home and international stage. So he might agree to host, but do little else (like push Putin into any concessions).

So really the question is what response we might now see from...

• 🇺🇸 Trump

Putin's summit idea appeals (by design, to be clear) to lots of Trump's instincts, or at least branding:

• US voters returned him to office on promises (among many) to end this war

• He's always argued his direct, personal dealery can break any impasse, and

• He's long been pretty dismissive of Zelensky, plus much of broader Europe.

So he'll see plenty to like about a Zelensky-free summit of strongmen ✌️ending this war✌️. The main downsides (in Trump's mind) will be a) doing it on Xi's turf (Xi takes the W), and b) agreeing to another unpopular Putin win before the midterms.

So our gut is this POTUS will be inclined to agree, but will (publicly at least) try to keep his options open at least until after the midterms.

So that's that? These three just meet in Shenzhen to carve up Ukraine? Well why don't we check in on...

• 🇺🇦 Zelensky

Pending any formal response to this possible Shenzhen summit over his head, Ukraine's leader has now resumed playing the one card he still really has left: smashing all those calculations on the altar of on-the-ground reality.

Putin's trilateral summit really rests on the false premise that his victory is inevitable. We say false because of course, nearly five years after rolling his tanks over the border for a quick three-day war, he's now lost...

• 1.4 million casualties

• two-thirds of his liquid rainy day fund

• more men each month than the Soviets lost via Afghanistan in a decade, and

• a constant string of oil hubs and now data centres, way beyond the frontlines.

In fact, just this weekend, Zelensky unleashed another massive long-range hit back at his attacker, torching St Petersburg's oil terminal, damaging another logistics hub, and frying another data centre (pro-Putin bots and all) in Putin's own hometown.

So maybe Ukraine gets a vote after all?