What’s with the nuclear freak-out

President Trump’s pledge to “immediately start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis” sent shivers through even the grinchiest of Halloween hearts last week.

Why Trump’s big nuclear announcement?

The president told 60 Minutes that rivals like Russia, China, Pakistan, and North Korea are already testing their own nukes, and he’s not just talking delivery systems (missiles): “they test way underground where people don't know exactly what's happening with the test.”

So Trump is seemingly accusing rivals of covertly shattering the global moratorium on nuke testing that’s mostly held since India and Pakistan’s tests in 1998. We say ‘mostly’ because North Korea went full North Korea and ran six tests between 2006 and 2017.

And yet while these latest headlines are explosive (sorry), the actual claims aren’t new: US agencies have already argued Russia (at Novaya Zemlya) and China (at Lop Nur) were running low-yield tests in 2019.

To be clear, Trump’s response isn’t new, either: he mulled tests during his first term, too.

Anyway, all the above, plus Russia’s recent flexing and China’s rapid arsenal expansion (from way behind), is why Trump now argues the US must follow suit. For him, it’s about the US maintaining a) readiness, b) equivalence, and c) deterrence.

But even a clarification from Trump’s energy secretary that he’s just testing “noncritical” components rather than full-blown nukes wasn’t enough to calm the world’s jitters.

So why the world’s big reaction?

First, hitting the ⏯️ button on any kind of US nuclear testing now could trigger the exact kind of cascading tit-for-testing everyone was trying to stop in the first place.

Second, it’s actually rivals like Russia, China, and others who have the most to gain from unrestrained testing, as they’re still lagging across most technical dimensions (US simulations and ‘sub-critical’ tests should already ensure stockpile reliability).

Third, breaking the dam on testing might also weaken related US efforts on non-proliferation (stopping others from getting nukes) — eg, a resumption in US testing arguably undermines US credibility when pressuring North Korea and Iran to just chill.

And finally, any resumption in tit-for-testing could also rattle US allies like Japan and Korea who are right near nuclear powers like North Korea, China, and Russia. And that, in turn, might boost local voices already there demanding their own nuclear deterrent.

Anyway, that’s why this year’s spookiest Halloween moment wasn’t actually the ‘cereal killer’ costume (a massive, bloodied Cheerios box fyi), but rather, the possibility the US might resume nuclear testing.