Israel kills Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar

Israel has announced the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the group’s latest overall leader and the architect of the Hamas attacks on Israel last October 7th.

The co-founder of the Hamas armed wing, Sinwar spent more than two decades in an Israeli prison for his role in the 1989 kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he considered to be collaborators. But he then got released in 2011 as one of 1,026 Palestinian prisoners exchanged for kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

How’d Sinwar die?

The IDF released drone footage late yesterday (Thursday) showing Sinwar in his final moments: masked, wounded, and hiding behind a couch in the second story of a damaged building in Rafah, southern Gaza. His final act was to toss a stick at the drone.

There are various reports around the broader encounter, but the most common timeline Israeli officials are back-briefing to local and international outlets looks like this:

• Yesterday, an Israeli patrol in Rafah spotted three figures moving from house to house, and identified them as likely Hamas members

• A firefight ensued and the individuals (who threw grenades) scattered into nearby buildings, which the Israelis then shelled

• The Israelis then flew a drone inside and captured the above footage, before firing another shell inside

• This morning (Friday), the Israelis re-entered and found bodies including Sinwar’s. They confirmed his ID using dental records from his decades in prison.

So what now?

For Hamas, its battalions are now mostly gone or combat ineffective, while its key leaders are all dead. And while the group still seems capable of firing occasional rockets at Israel (as it did on the October 7 anniversary), both the volume and frequency have collapsed.

So looking ahead, there are two big questions for Hamas. First, who might replace Sinwar, who himself only just got the top job after Israel assassinated Haniyeh in Iran. Various names include Sinwar’s (much less capable) brother Mohammed, or Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, though it’s unclear what difference either could make right now.

And second, there’s the question of whether Sinwar’s death shifts the group’s attitudes towards the 100 hostages it’s still holding in Gaza. You could argue that with hardliners like Sinwar and Deif now gone, others in the group might be more inclined to negotiate. Alternatively, you could argue that with the group now focused entirely on its own survival, it’s less likely to give up the one source of leverage it still has left (hostages).

As for Hamas backers like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and their shared sponsor, Iran? They’ve long anchored their sense of security in a belief that with their collective firepower aimed at Israel, the Israelis couldn’t - so wouldn’t - take them all on. But the demise of so many Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, plus the degradation of all three arsenals, now leaves Iran more vulnerable not only regionally, but also at home.

Then that takes us back to Israel, which can now add Sinwar’s death to its recent string of victories. And it’ll interpret Sinwar’s demise as a vindication of its decisions both to a) not do another deal with him; and b) proceed with a ground operation in Rafah (where they eventually found him) despite all the international pressure earlier this year.

So then, the big question now is whether any of this shapes Israel’s - but really Netanyahu’s - calculations about how and when to end this war. You could argue Sinwar’s death might create enough political space for Bibi to declare some kind of victory in Gaza, and initial statements from world leaders suggest many now sense a turning point to finally get the hostages released and end this war. But hardliners in Netanyahu’s government have already rejected those calls: unless Hamas surrenders, “forget about it”.

Either way, it’ll largely depend on what Hamas does with the ~100 hostages, and to that end, Bibi has now said he’ll guarantee the captors can “leave and live” if they let them go.

So then, where does that leave things? Bibi has hinted this is now “the beginning of the end”, but he’s still declaring that “the task before us is not yet complete”.