Three ways to look at Germany’s election results

Germany's weekend election has played out pretty much as we foreshadowed on Friday, with conservative Friedrich Merz emerging as Germany's presumptive next chancellor.

But different folks are now claiming different victories, so let's take a quick look at three of the many ways you could look at these results, and what they might mean for the world:

1. A win for the establishment?

Voters clearly rejected the parties involved in Germany's last fractious coalition, but up to ~75% of folks still ended up backing parties broadly within Germany's mainstream (depending how you want to define that) — and that mainstream might now get a firmer hold over Germany's legislature, which seems set to feature fewer minor parties.

Plus, in putting Merz in charge, voters are also now bringing back to power the long-ruling party of Angela Merkel, which grew its share of the vote to 28.5% (up ~5% from last time). So sure, there's an argument that while Germans clearly want change, they still want it within the guardrails of Germany's mainstream parties.

But while Merz has emerged on top, it's not a full-blown 'crack that bottle of sekt' moment for him — his party still recorded its second-worst result in history (after 2021), and seems likely to face a loud opposition ahead.

So, maybe this election was...

2. A win for the right?

The leader of the nationalist-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) opposition called the result a glorious success on TV overnight, coming in second with 20.8% of the vote. That was in line with expectations, but it was also:

• her party's strongest-ever national result, doubling its vote since 2021

• a first-place in the eastern states and nationally in the 35-44 age bracket, plus

• mainstream parties mostly now agree on the need for some kind of immigration reform (a long-time AfD priority — Merz is vowing a 15-point plan).

Then, if you want to add Merz's victorious conservative party up above, you've got a collective 49% of Germany's electorate now leaning right, up from 34.5% last time.

But as we explored on Friday, Merz is ruling out any coalition with the AfD, not just due to its suspected extremist ties but also its euro-sceptic and Russia-friendly approach to the world.

Speaking of which, maybe this was...

3. A win for Europe?

The most likely outcome is now a return to Germany's simpler and traditionally more stable 'grand coalition' between Merz's own centre-right and the centre-left of the ousted Olaf Scholz. Merz also seems likely to have the numbers to tweak Germany's constitution and ease the country's famous 'debt brake', giving him more fiscal firepower to (say) invest in infrastructure, lift defence spending, and ramp-up support for Ukraine.

That combo of political stability and fiscal firepower might mean Merz now has a better shot at the reforms needed to revive Europe’s second-largest economy (after two years of contraction) and lift Europe’s support for Ukraine (after three years of war).

And that’s why not only is the euro holding steady (while German stocks solidify their recent rally), but almost every European leader made a reference to a 'strong Europe' in their congratulations.

Anyway, Merz now says he wants to wrap up coalition negotiations within the next two months, which is an ambitious timeframe by German standards, particularly after such a bruising campaign. But Merz doesn’t have a lot of time — "the world won't wait for us".