Modi’s rough week

One day, India’s Narendra Modi is grinning ear to ear as he clasps hands with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin on the red carpet in Tianjin.

The next, he’s copping the coldest of shoulders from President Trump via the gut punch that is US tariffs.

Now, that’s already lots of anatomical references and we’re only two sentences in. But has Modi now (ahem) recovered that famous bounce in his step? No, for two big reasons: 

1. Pakistan-Saudi defence pact 

India’s nuclear-armed neighbour and arch-rival, Pakistan, just signed a mutual defence treaty in Riyadh. On paper, it sounds a lot like NATO’s famous Article 5, warning that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” 

And that’s a big deal for two reasons:

• i) It adds a new layer of nuclear deterrence to the Gulf, with Pakistan potentially now helping the Saudis deter any big Israeli or Iranian moves in the region, and

• ii) It also signals waning Saudi trust in US security guarantees amid Israel’s recent Qatar strikes — why seek Pakistani protection if you’ve already got the US?

The Saudis and Pakistanis themselves argue it’s not such a big deal, as it’s more a formalisation of a six-decade partnership rather than some overnight pivot — there were already Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia, for example. Plus the pact emphasises consultations over automatic intervention, with any ‘nuclear umbrella’ left unclear.

But what’s any of this got to do with India’s Narendra Modi having a bad week?

Well, he’s worked hard to cosy up to the Saudis lately, becoming their third-biggest oil customer and pushing more defence cooperation, all in hopes he might dilute Pakistan’s Gulf influence and blunt Saudi interest in thorny issues closer to home, like Kashmir.

And yet, just as Modi gains ground… yoink — the Saudis put a ring on it with Pakistan. And speaking of yoink….

2. H-1B visa crackdown

India’s impact on Silicon Valley is hard to miss, whether it’s via a) the CEOs of Google, Microsoft, Adobe, IBM, YouTube, Palo Alto Networks, NetApp, Zscaler, Micron and beyond, b) the 30% or so of the Valley’s broader tech workers now with roots in India, or c) the 71% of approved H-1B skilled worker visas going to Indian nationals last year.

That’s why Modi has long hoped the US might expand that H-1B visa program. It’s also why he’ll have taken it personally when President Trump effectively just did the opposite, announcing hefty new $100K H-1B visa fees. The reality is it’ll make India’s tech talent both more expensive, and harder to get into the US.

And that not only hits the workers or the US giants relying on them, but also India’s massive outsourcing firms like Infosys, Wipro, and Tata, generating $250B in exports.

So Modi’s foreign ministry is already warning of “humanitarian consequences” for India’s families. But speaking of humanitarian consequences, any US sympathies might’ve already faded given Modi’s defiance of calls to stop financing Putin’s war via oil purchases.