Israel hits Hamas in Qatar

Well that was unexpected: around 4:00pm Tuesday local time in the ritzy Katara district of Qatar’s capital of Doha, an Israeli airstrike blew up a compound hosting Hamas leaders.

While Israel has signalled confidence it was a wipe-out, Hamas says none of its five dead were senior leaders. Right now, we just don’t know.

What was Hamas doing in Qatar? 

Qatar’s political HQ used to be in Syria until a civil war falling-out with Syria’s al-Assad dictatorship pushed Hamas to relocate. There’ve always been reports both the US and Israel tacitly approved that move — and Qatar’s subsequent financial backing in Gaza — as a way to weaken Iran’s grip.

But of course, the Hamas October 7 attacks brought new scrutiny to Qatar-Hamas ties:

• The Qataris have (with the Egyptians) leveraged their Hamas ties to mediate ceasefire talks since the beginning, but

• The Biden Administration started to lose patience, pushing the Qataris to evict Hamas unless the group eased its ceasefire demands. By November 2024, Doha was saying senior Hamas figures had skipped town, though the office remained.

Senior Hamas leaders then apparently flew back into Qatar from Turkey and elsewhere this week, with Qatar’s PM urging them to accept the latest US deal: release all hostages in return for more Palestinian detainees and a US pledge Israel wouldn’t resume the war.

So then… why’d Israel strike? 

The Israelis argue the attack was justified because Hamas a) led the October 7th attack on Israel, and b) claimed responsibility for Monday’s deadly Jerusalem bus stop attack.

For Israel, this ongoing assassination program is about holding Hamas to account, shifting negotiations in its own favour (surrender and return the hostages), and even just cutting Hamas out altogether: Netanyahu has urged Gazans, “make peace with us, and accept President Trump’s proposal. […] But you’ve got to take these people out of the way.”

Meanwhile, Qatar has condemned this all as a threat to its security and sovereignty, a “blatant violation of all international laws and norms”, and an escalation in an already volatile region. It’s also (along with much of the international community) flagged that these strikes targeting Hamas negotiators will undermine any prospects for peace.

But as always, one of the biggest questions is…

Did the US know about this?

The Israelis say it was their idea and their decision, carried out by them alone. But Israeli outlets initially reported DC helped coordinate and ultimately even approved the attack.

Meanwhile, President Trump says he only found out from the Pentagon at the last minute, and tried to give the Qataris a heads-up but it was too late.

As for the Qataris themselves? They seem sceptical (and pissed), arguing a) they got no word until missiles were already raining down, b) local US defences swatted away Iran’s attacks back in June, but didn’t seem to lift a finger now, and c) the airstrike comes just days after President Trump issued a “last warning” for Hamas to accept his deal.

But that’d mean the US greenlighting a strike on its own major non-NATO ally, Qatar.

What now? 

Hamas is citing the attacks as proof Israel doesn’t want peace, whereas the Israelis are blaming foreign-based Hamas leaders (far from the war) as the true obstacles at this point.

Either way, it’s hard to see Qatari mediation surviving these strikes. And from what we’ve seen of Hamas so far, it’s hard to see it surrendering now after digging in for so long.