Latest news for 25 April 2025

UNITED STATES

China to suspend tariffs on some US goods?

According to Bloomberg, China is mulling tariff exemptions for US goods it needs like medical equipment, industrial chemicals, and plane leases. But the two sides are still publicly clashing on whether they’re even in talks, with Trump saying yes and China saying no (they both have political incentives to be right). (Bloomberg $)

Comment: There’s been plenty of analysis on America’s China-dependence, so it’s interesting to see examples of the reverse. Another interesting example of China-dependence? Japan is reportedly resisting US efforts to form a bloc against China, because of the sheer size of Japan-China trade.

INDIA

Nuclear-armed foes India and Pakistan still on the brink.

Since Tuesday’s terrorist attack, Pakistani and Indian forces along their Kashmir border have exchanged fire (no casualties reported). Meanwhile, the tit-for-tat measures have continued, with Pakistan in turn expelling Indian diplomats, cancelling Indian-held visas, closing airspace to Indian airlines, and warning that any halt to Pakistan’s water supplies would be an “act of war”. (AFP)

Comment: Our view from yesterday remains unchanged — an Indian airstrike on jihadi bases in remote Pakistan feels inevitable, with Pakistan’s matched responses above underscoring the risk of a miscalculation as they both climb the escalatory ladder.

VATICAN CITY

Pope frontrunners emerge ahead of Francis funeral.

As world leaders head to the Vatican for the pope’s funeral tomorrow (Saturday), one name doing the rounds as a possible successor is Italy’s own Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a moderate figure and the Vatican’s current secretary of state. (BBC)

Comment: Of the last six conclaves, the presumed favourite has only emerged as pope once (that was Benedict in 2005). As we explored on Monday, our view is traditional figures might become more influential in the digital and multipolar decades ahead.

NORTHERN MARIANAS: The US revives another WWII base.

The US is restoring an 80-year-old military facility on Tinian — it’s the same island from where US B-29s dropped atomic bombs on Imperial Japan during WWII. The refurb is part of US deterrence efforts in the Pacific, though Australia’s ABC reports locals are now worried about becoming a target in any war. (ABC)