Is Putin running out of gas?

Russia rationing gas is a little like Colonel Sanders rationing Original Recipe®, but that’s what’s now happening, barely a week into Ukraine’s 40-day pressure campaign.

So here are the four key numbers you need to know, starting with...

• ⛔ 82

That's how many of Russia's 83 recognised regions are now facing fuel shortages, via official rationing or just empty pumps. The sole hold-out is ultra-remote Chukotka (pop. 50,000) where reindeer outnumber people four-to-one. But to put it another way, we're watching an energy superpower struggle with energy across all 11 of its timezones.

The result? Everything from queues, queue-brawls, and jump-a-queue black-markets, through to surging bicycle demand and even halting services (ambulance, fire, trash).

• ⛽ 30 litres

That's the max (~8 gallons) most folks can now buy in Moscow, after giants like Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil all announced daily limits this week. There are even reported gas queues in ritzy Rublyovka, where Putin's elites live.

Meanwhile, Moscow’s smaller outlets are selling fuel above the symbolic 100 rubles mark ($4.50 per gallon) — even Muscovites, rich and poor, are feeling the burn of Putin's war.

• 📈 30%

Depends who (and when) you ask, but that's how much of Russia's oil refining capacity is now offline. It's fluctuating amid a nightly see-saw between Ukrainian hits and Russian repairs, but the trajectory is spiking as Ukraine's annual drone output pushes towards seven million, while its monthly batch of bus-sized Flamingo cruise missiles hits ~200.

• 🔥 40%

Depends again who you ask, but that's roughly the offline refining threshold at which point it becomes impossible for Putin to reliably supply his own civilian and military needs.

And that means potential tough choices ahead for Putin: do you sustain your frontline, your occupied territories, your impending harvest season, or your Rublyovka elites?

For now, he's still ticking 'all of the above' at 30% offline, through a mix of emergency rationing, redirecting, export restrictions, and even fuel imports. But the pain is visible enough that even Putin himself is now publicly acknowledging the shortages — a rarity.

If Ukraine manages to force ~40% of his refining capacity offline, however, that’s really when he faces critical logistical breakdown, and tougher, more imminent choices.

But don't worry everyone, the mayor of Irkutsk has just announced he'll install porta-potties along the growing gas queues.

Sound even smarter:

• Herman Gref, head of Russia’s largest bank (Sberbank), just made two spicy comments to shareholders: first, he repeated calls for lower rates (a tension we’ve long highlighted); and second, he noted “I don't think there's a single person in the country who's concerned about anything other than a speedy end to military action; that's obvious".

• But lest anyone think censorship is breaking, Alexander Lunin — the ex-soldier who made headlines last week by publicly demanding a meeting with Putin or risk a mutiny — is now in jail.