Is Iran’s radar strategy working?

Here’s what’s happened in the 24 hours since Intrigue last cannon-balled into your inbox:

The war:

• Nato air defences have downed a second Iranian ballistic missile in Turkish airspace — it’s getting harder for the regime to claim these are accidents.

• President Macron is deploying two frigates to beef up the EU’s Red Sea ops.

• And new evidence suggests the US was responsible for the day-one airstrike on a girls' school in southern Iran, killing ~175 (mostly children). One hypothesis blames old intel from before the school was separated from the adjacent base.

The markets:

• The G7 finance ministerial ended without a decision on whether to release emergency oil reserves to cushion the blow of $100+ oil prices. But oil prices kept easing anyway, likely because President Trump told reporters the war is “very complete, pretty much”, though “we haven't won enough”.

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have vowed “not a single litre” of oil will get out while US and Israeli strikes continue (how about that metric system trolling).

• And the regime says the only exception will be for European and Middle Eastern countries that expel their local Israeli and US ambassadors — that’s not happening (most of the region doesn’t even have an Israeli ambassador), but it’s interesting to see how the regime views its Hormuz leverage.

And the miscellaneous:

• Australia has started offering asylum to members of Iran’s women’s soccer team after state TV labelled them traitors for not singing the national anthem at the Women’s Asian Cup (President Trump weighed in for them too).

As for this briefing’s quick focus?

US radar systems. There’s little surprising about the US/Israeli ability to fry most of the regime’s military. What’s maybe surprising is the regime’s ability to land big hits back.

And while headlines naturally gravitate to (say) the world’s tallest building ablaze, or influencers fleeing drones at DXB, Iran’s quieter hits might be more painful.

Why so quiet? Like any military, the US is quick to release its enemy battle damage assessments, but details on its own damage come slowly (if at all).

That leaves online grifters and spooks to fill the void, but commercial satellite imagery makes it possible to triangulate at least two confirmed hits on advanced US radars.

• The first was in Jordan, where Iran hit a $300M, Raytheon-built AN/TPY-2 radar known for its long range, sharp precision, and full mobility.

• The second was in Qatar, where Iran hit a Raytheon-built AN/FPS-132 known for its even longer range (5,000km), multi-target skills, and higher price (~$1B).

So Iran has now arguably fried the region’s outer US radar layer, plus a ~sixth of its inner layer known as the ‘eyes’ of THAAD (America’s top-tier ballistic missile defence system).

There’s also evidence to suggest Iran has damaged US radar domes in Kuwait, a satellite comms system in Bahrain, and a radar in Saudi Arabia — clearly trying to blind US forces.

And… is all this really a big deal? Yes and no.

No, in the sense that a) this damage mostly occurred during Iran’s initial swarms, b) that swarm capability is fading fast, and c) the US and its allies still thwart most attacks.

But yes it’s a big deal longer term in the sense that these systems are clearly…

• Rare: there are were only six of those Qatar-style systems in the world, and maybe 16 of the Jordan ones

• Irreplaceable: that rarer Qatar system is ~half the size of a soccer field and takes five+ years to build; even the portable Jordan system takes two+ years

• Valuable: these high-tech radars are difficult to further harden without degrading their performance, and yet they’re also…

• Vulnerable: at least some of the damage seems to have come via cheap drones.

And of course, everyone (including China and Russia) is all the while taking notes on what it now takes to partially blind a wartime US.

Oh, and lest you have any doubt about the implications, the world’s biggest open-source satellite imagery provider shining a light on all this (Planet) just announced a new 14-day delay for certain Middle East images after ✌️consulting✌️ with DC (aka Pentagon pressure).