Iran’s glaring funeral absence

Four months after US-Israeli strikes killed him, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader finally got his funeral over the weekend. But it was less casseroles and condolences, and more a regime flex for the ages, starting with…

1. The timing

Iran’s regime kicked things off on Saturday, which is intriguing for two reasons.

First, Shiite tradition demands a prompt burial, but the regime opted for the politics of a delayed spectacle, over the theology of any prompt wartime rites. And lest any clerics object, this funeral also now falls in the Shiite mourning month of Muharram.

Plus second, this Saturday was obviously the same day the US celebrated its 250th July 4th — that’s realistically an intentional overlap that syncs the religious ritual with a show of defiance against the US, particularly as US-Iran talks limp on. Then let's look at...

2. The scale

This is not your standard black suits and finger sandwiches affair. Rather, this spectacle is...

• Multi-day, stretching six straight days through Thursday

• Millions deep, with the regime hoping to draw crowds totalling 30 million

• Cross-border, passing over into Iraq's cities of Najaf and Karbala, and…

• Multi-city, rolling through to the holy city of Qom and on until burial in his birth city of Mashhad.

The message? It's about highlighting the regime's continued power not only across Iran and the broader Shiite world, but even throughout history itself: bigger than Khomeini's 1989 mega-funeral. After a full US-Israeli war, it’s all "we're as strong as ever."

So with that big stage set, it’s time to look at…

3. The attendees

This was not your standard close family and frolleagues affair. Rather, attendees covered...

• The regime (IRGC's Vahidi, Qaani from Quds), the Khameneis (three of his sons), civilian hardliners (Speaker Qalibaf), and figureheads (President Pezeshkian)

• Senior reps from all of Iran’s neighbours (Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan), and...

• Delegations from 100 other nations, like Russia's Medvedev (he somehow found the fuel), China's He Wei (vice-chair of China's top legislative body), and beyond.

The message? Flipping the funeral into a summit, it's really about declaring that this regime is still a) unified (factions) b) legitimate (sons), and c) far from isolated (VIPs).

So with that crowd assembled, what’d they say…?

4. The eulogy

The most high-profile remarks actually came from a poet, Mohammad Rasouli. Rather than drop a gentle haiku about peaceful valleys and eternal rest, he went straight for "why is the most bastard man in the world still alive?" and "Trump's killing is our duty", drawing loud cheers and "Death to America".

Iran's 97-year-old Grand Ayatollah (Sobhani) then led the traditional prayers, though he still framed Khamenei as a martyr killed in the path of god — that's standard for any deaths in conflict, elevating any single end into a source of collective resistance.

But somehow, even all the above potentially fades compared to...

5. The absence

The old supreme leader's successor and son, Mojtaba Khamenei, didn't actually turn up to his own father’s funeral! No photo op. No prayer. No cameo.

Why? The closest thing we have to an official explanation comes from a cleric called Hakim Elahi, now serving as Mojtaba's personal envoy (not ambassador) in India. He told Indian media the boss would skip the funeral because "security threats and surveillance risks have made it unsafe for him to appear in public."

Of course, there's precedent here: Iran’s last major state funeral (for the ex-president who died in a chopper crash) enabled Israel to assassinate the visiting leader of Hamas.

But the regime still hasn’t released a single fresh pic of Mojtaba since he supposedly succeeded his father four months ago, while other presumed top Israeli targets (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) all still attended his father’s funeral this weekend.

So at this point, Mojtaba's continued absence really fuels doubts around his health and grip on power amid rumours he’s dead, comatose, disfigured, or otherwise out of action — such a truth might undercut the 'seamless succession' narrative justifying regime rule.

In sum? Iran really threw the mother of all funerals to prove it's still strong. But all the chants, crowds, and VIPs still weren't enough to obscure the elephant in the (otherwise very crowded and highly choreographed) room: is Iran’s new leader even alive?

Sound even smarter:

• President Trump agreed to pause US-Iran talks for this week’s funeral formalities.