What Xi really wants in North Korea

If you really love someone, let them go…

But if they then run into the arms of Vladimir Putin, maybe go back and hug them tighter?

At least that’s what might’ve been on Xi Jinping’s mind when he decided to schedule his first trip abroad for 2026 (!), and his first visit to Korea’s hermit North since 2019.

After a personal tarmac welcome from local dictator Kim Jong Un and his wife Ri Sol-ju, the two ol’ neighbours rolled into town past synchronised crowds, epic flags and portraits, and cute kids with balloons, amid what state outlets described as “thunderous cheers”.

But now that Xi and his famous wife (Peng Liyuan) have returned home from their night in Kim’s Kumsusan State Guesthouse, what was Xi really doing in North Korea?

Here are four top explanations, starting with… (yes)…

1. Do you need a reason to visit your neighbour?

Xi isn’t visiting because June is a lovely time to see Pyongyang — sure, the climate is pleasant, but monsoon season hits any day now. The official reason is to mark the 65th anniversary of China’s only mutual defence pact, signed between Zhou Enlai and Kim’s grandfather back in 1961.

And okay, 65 years is a beautiful blue sapphire anniversary, but surely Xi could’ve just sent a nice fruit basket. So why the visit?

He’s partly just signalling that he’s still committed to Kim. But speaking of commitments…

2. Russia

With Xi largely watching from the sidelines, Putin and Kim have now spent three years pumping their ties: Putin needed help invading his smaller neighbour, and duly received ~10,000 North Korean troops and 5,000 engineers, plus shells and rockets.

In return? Kim has received Russian tech (spy satellites, air defence, electronic warfare), combat experience, a mutual defence treaty, oil and food shipments, plus hundreds of millions in annual remittances from the 30,000+ North Korean workers now in Russia.

And that’s a legit haul for Kim, but it still pales compared to the bigger picture of Putin effectively helping Kim solidify his hermit state as a power beyond Beijing’s shadow.

So… how does Xi feel about this? There’s breathlessness among the commentariat, but our sense is he’s probably got mixed feelings, like Kanye interrupting Taylor at the VMAs: you enjoy the chaos, but you’re not sure this will end well for anyone — sure, helping Putin’s failed invasion of Ukraine also means distracting and diluting Western power.

But a more confident and independent North Korea arguably also just loosens Xi’s leverage over this corner of China’s periphery, especially given Kim already went…

3. Nuclear 

Glancing through China’s readout from Monday’s Kim meeting, there’s one radioactive elephant in the room that goes totally unmentioned: Kim’s illegal nukes.

To be clear, Xi didn’t just forget. How could he: Kim literally just toured a new nuclear site last week, and pledged an “exponential” ramp-up for his illegal nukes ahead.

Rather, the reality is this was a striking omission by a UN Security Council member responsible for enforcing nuclear rules against Kim. But it wasn’t new: the last time Xi publicly reiterated support for “denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula” was in 2023! 

So why the change? We’d argue it’s a mix of a) the perceived futility of reversing DPRK’s nuclear advances at this stage, and relatedly b) Xi prioritising alliance and border stability over what he might see as Western-led concerns around a treaty ally’s nuclear program.

Besides, there are more profitable subjects to focus on, like… 

4. The economy 

When Singapore’s foreign minister swung through North Korea last month, he dropped a surprisingly gushing video about the boom there since his last visit eight years ago.

And Western outlets are now backing up all the fancy-car and oven-fired pizza anecdotes, with even the WSJ declaring North Korea “the world’s most surprising economic success story” — Pyongyang supposedly built more homes than Los Angeles or Chicago last year!

So… what’s going on? There’s clearly a base effect at play: you can grow your economy by a third when it’s tiny. But that boom still looks real, driven by arms sales to Putin, rebounding exports to China, and cybercrime proceeds.

And yet, how does Xi feel? Again, we’d argue he’s got mixed feelings, like Obi-Wan watching Anakin team up with Palpatine: technically advancing the plot against the Republic, but urgh you’ve got a bad feeling. Yes, a prosperous North Korea means a stable border. But it also gives Kim more room to manoeuvre, and erodes Xi’s leverage.

So that might be why Xi used his visit to call for the “full reopening of border crossings and the resumption of civil aviation flights and international passenger trains” — ie, to reassert China as North Korea’s economic patron, plus Xi’s related leverage over his periphery.

But will it be enough to woo Kim back?

Sound even smarter:

• One recent Amnesty report quotes Northern defectors describing public execution for those caught sharing South Korea’s tunes and TV dramas!