4 elections and a personality test

If politics truly is showbusiness for ugly people, then maybe this month is the Golden Globes: not the main event, half the room already knows who won, but hey, at least there's a bit of global branding?

And that’s all we need for a quick whip around the world’s elections, starting in...

1. 🇷🇺 Russia: pre-cooked

Folks in Kamchatka, nine time zones ahead of Moscow, were first in line for Russia's first full parliamentary vote since Putin rolled his tanks into Ukraine.

Running today (Friday) through Sunday, the idea is to elect all 450 members of Russia's Duma, along with some regional parliaments and governors. Putin is also running ✌️ballots✌️ in the parts of Ukraine he’s occupying.

So... who's gonna win?

Haha. Putin's United Russia Party of course, thanks to a cocktail of…

• a) ~30% support (populists, propaganda, and paychecks)

• b) apathy (any genuine opposition is dead, de-listed, or driven abroad), plus...

• c) cooking: gurus like Shpilkin have long documented statistical anomalies like 'Churov's Saw' and the 'Comet Tail' to chart all the stuffing and quota matching.

So then... what's the point? It's really a mix of...

• i) stress test (governors have to hit turnout quotas to prove their loyalty)
  ii) intimidation (showing elites that, war or not, the boss is still in control)
  iii) legitimisation (see? Ukraine's ex-land is just more Russia!), and
  iv) preparation (reassert control before the next unpopular mobilisation).

Now let's sail across the sliver of Baltic where Russia's EEZ very briefly kisses...

2. 🇸🇪 Sweden: gridlocked

If everyone knows Putin's result in advance, Sweden is the opposite: it just took four days to confirm a photo finish, with a month or two of coalition talks now ahead.

The centre-right PM (Kristersson) has now resigned after voters seemingly tired of his coalition's polarising vibes. But don't confuse his loss for someone else winning: the centre-left's Magdalena Andersson now has the best chance of forming the next government, but her party scored its worst-ever result under universal suffrage, and now has a tough road ahead to stitch other left-leaning parties together.

Bottom line? The Swedes really voted for something like a customer service complaint more than a revolution. Meanwhile, we just saw some new fine print in...

3. 🇹🇷 Turkey: the calendar hack

President Erdoğan has dominated Turkish politics for 23 consecutive years, and he's now 'technically' in his final term, scheduled to leave in May 2028. So that's that?

No, dear Intriguer, that is not that, because Erdoğan’s legal whisperer (an aide called Uçum) just confirmed Ankara's worst-kept secret: the plan is to bring the 2028 election forward by three weeks. Why? The constitution contains a cheat-code allowing the president to run for another term if parliament calls ✌️early✌️ elections.

Who cares? Well after years of jailing key rivals and dominating key institutions, we'll probably now see Erdoğan at the helm until at least 2033. And that means Turkey's political risk premium is here to stay for investors, while its transactionalism is here to stay for neighbours and NATO allies alike.

Anyway, if Erdoğan is rewriting the calendar, let's finish in the country that routinely votes on whether to rewrite everything...

4. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: direct democracy

Next Sunday (27th), the Swiss will do what the Swiss do: yes, price a ski pass in three currencies, but also vote on a historic right-populist 'safeguard neutrality' initiative.

It's basically asking voters to enshrine a stricter definition of neutrality in the constitution, mostly ban the government from foreign sanctions and alliances, and thereby unwind what some see as the heresy of 2022 (when Switzerland matched Western sanctions on Russia).

Why do this? The populists argue that joining Western sanctions broke centuries of strategic ambiguity, compromised Switzerland's role as a peacemaker, and exposed the country to retaliation.

But critics (including the government and two-thirds of voters if you want to believe the polls) warn it'd just be a straitjacket, curbing Switzerland's flexibility, and leaving it more isolated in a more hostile 'hood.

So there you have it, folks: there are so many ways to hold an election in 2026, perhaps the only common thread above is the number three: a three-day coronation in Russia, a three-seat cliff-hanger in Sweden, a three-week calendar trick in Turkey, and a three-language lock (if we’re skipping Romansh) on neutrality in Switzerland.

Sound even smarter:

• Turkey’s electoral intrigue is playing out against some market mayhem, after regulators clamped down on rigged investment funds and accidentally triggered a domino effect of redemptions, sell-offs, and central bank emergency liquidity injections.

• Other elections we’re tracking include i) Morocco’s 23 Sept parliamentary elections (under the king’s watchful eye, of course); and ii) France’s indirect election for the senate, with ~95,000 elected officials and delegates shaping the upper house.