Could Zelensky lose power?

YouTube says its users upload 20 million new videos every day. Most are probably garbage, but one from Tuesday (on a brand new channel to boot) is worth a look.

It features Ukraine’s ousted defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, making the most direct challenge to President Zelensky’s wartime presidency, arguing Ukraine’s “democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia”. Translation? He wants elections.

We’ve heard this debate before, but this time feels a little different. Why?

First, there’s Zelensky himself. Still popular, but the once-unassailable wartime leader now faces voter fatigue, insider scandals, and lingering questions around how long he can keep holding the system together without a fresh democratic mandate.

Second, there’s Fedorov himself.

He went full Doogie Howser back in 2019, becoming Ukraine’s youngest-ever minister (for digital transformation) at age 28! He was riding into power on the coattails of Zelensky, who had just won the presidency in a 73% landslide.

And by all accounts, young Fedorov did a great job, driving Ukraine near the top of global e-government rankings: think digital IDs and online tax.

Now fast forward to January this year, and Fedorov (about to turn 35) is rocking Clooney hair while dressing like Steve Jobs meets that Mads Mikkelsen Bond villain.

But frankly the guy can dress how he likes, because some of his early wartime digital bets (including Starlink and drones) are now paying big dividends.

So Zelensky appoints him defence minister, hoping to lean further into Ukraine’s tech advantages over Putin’s Soviet-era ‘meat waves’.

And it works, with Ukraine seizing more of the initiative. But the sheer speed and depth of reform irks Ukraine’s top generals, and relationships soon crumble.

So Zelensky fires Fedorov to keep the generals happy, but something surprising happens: protests erupt, as younger folks rally behind his image as a tech-savvy innovator shaking up an old, opaque system while also helping win the war.

Now Zelensky tries to calm the storm by firing his top general and inviting Fedorov back into the fold, but it’s too late. Fedorov ain’t interested. And now we know why…

His big ‘Address to Ukrainians’ argues:

• The government should be more transparent

• Personal loyalty shouldn’t determine political advancement, and

• The elite has become too entrenched, losing the trust of the people.

But really, his core argument is it’s precisely by holding a wartime ballot that Ukraine can prove to Russia and the world that its democracy is worth defending.

There’s logic here, too: a wartime ballot would neutralise the “he’s a dictator” propaganda fanned unironically by Putin (and even amplified in the White House).

It’d also strengthen the hand of whoever gets the next five-year term, and perhaps disabuse Putin of the notion his own staggering losses can outlast the free world’s resolve.

But of course it’s not that simple.

First, there’s the law: Ukraine’s constitution forbids elections during martial law, which has been in place since Putin rolled tanks across the border in 2022.

Second, there’s the logistics: how do you count the million soldiers who are a little busy right now fighting for their lives and their families and their country?

Third, there’s the occupation: how do you count the four million or so folks now living in parts of Ukraine under Putinist rule? And would excluding them (while Putin runs sham elections there) be tantamount to accepting his control?

Fourth, there’s also the discord: an election pits Ukrainian against Ukrainian right when maybe unity is the country’s greatest asset (though there’s of course unity in the act of democracy).

And fifth, there’s the interference, whether Putin’s drones chasing random civilians in the streets, or his e-goons filling their feed with garbage.

It’d be hard, impractical, and dangerous. But you know what? It’s also unpopular.

Zelensky has laid low so far, no doubt to avoid giving his challenger oxygen. But also, poll after poll suggests most Ukrainians don’t actually want wartime elections.

Even one of the pro-Fedorov protest organisers opposes the idea!

So all that to say Zelensky isn’t about to lose power. But Fedorov has hit a nerve.

Sound even smarter:

• President Zelensky just fired a top aide after anti-corruption authorities raided her home.

• A day after Fedorov’s video dropped, Ukraine’s parliament confirmed intelligence and special-ops veteran Yevhenii Khmara as defence minister.

• Croatian authorities just arrested a Ukrainian on German allegations he took part in the 2022 attack on Russia’s NordStream gas pipeline to Europe.