The geopolitics of the World Cup!

The FIFA World Cup finally kicks off today (Thursday) and it’s already the most geopolitically charged tournament in recent history. That’s saying something when you recall the last two editions were hosted by Qatar (2022) and Russia (2018). 

So let’s casually but rapidly and stylishly power-walk through it all, country by country. 

Ready? 🎺🎺🎺 (there’s no whistle emoji). Let’s go!

1. 🇺🇸 USA 

This is a World Cup of firsts, dear Intriguer:

• It’s the first co-hosted by three countries (USA, Canada, Mexico), because…

• It’s also the first expanded Cup of 48 (not 32) teams playing 104 games, and…

• It’s the first time a host has started a war with a contender just before kickoff.

This lil’ cocktail of firsts has created more problems than you could jam into LA’s 70k-capacity SoFi stadium (see below), but there’s more:

Hotel bookings across Canada and Mexico are tracking higher than in all but one US city (SF), amid reports of fans flinching at higher US prices and tougher US borders.

And sure, DC waived a $15k visa bond for five qualifying African nations, but fans from dozens of other countries still face a blanket ban. It’s not just fans, either: Iraqi star striker Aymen Hussein got a seven-hour border grilling, the team’s photographer got rejected on vetting concerns, and a Somali ref got booted too — possibly because his name matched a sanctioned Al-Shabaab figure. The guy returned home to a hero’s welcome.

2. 🇮🇷 Iran 

Through some pretty heavy FIFA intervention, DC eventually agreed to issue visas for Iran’s team on the proviso players fly back to their Mexico base the same day of each match. But Iran is protesting the US withholding visas for 15 team officials (Rubio has flagged IRGC ties), and Iran also blames the US for Iran’s ticket allocation getting revoked!

But lest you think it’s all one-way, anti-regime dissidents are also peeved at FIFA for banning Iran’s pre-regime flag as a political symbol! The same flag made a Met Gala cameo in dissident solidarity, but the Iranian team later touched down in Tijuana with a lapel statement of its own: ‘168’, for the 168 killed in the early war’s US strike on a school.

Meanwhile, we know what you’re wondering, and the answer is yes: if the US finishes 2nd in Group D, and Iran comes 2nd in Group G, they’d play each other on July 3 in Texas. It’s statistically improbable, but would be only their third World Cup matchup in history (and the way our world is going, somehow feels inevitable?).

3. 🇲🇽 Mexico 

Security is always tight around events like the World Cup, but it raced back up Mexico’s priority list after the notorious New Generation Jalisco Cartel rampaged through host city Guadalajara in retaliation for February’s government raid that killed its boss, El Mencho.

Things have since stabilised, but President Sheinbaum isn’t taking any chances, deploying ~15,000 extra security personnel in hopes it’ll reassure tourists. Oh, and on a lighter note, she also walked back plans to cut short the school year by six weeks to ease congestion, after heavy criticism from parents! Families in Mexico consistently rank education #1.

4. 🇨🇳 China

Leaving aside the national trauma of soccer giant Italy somehow failing to make the World Cup for the third straight time, there’s also demographic giants India and China: India has never qualified (it withdrew in 1950), and China missed its chance at only a 2nd showing after an agonising 1-0 qualifier against Indonesia.

We write often about Xi’s big ‘Make China Great Again’ vision for 2050, but he’s actually highlighted soccer as part of that dream via his famous “three wishes”: to qualify, host, and eventually win a World Cup.

Why? C’mon, the guy is allowed to like soccer, but it’s also a useful social and economic tool, plus a huge boost to his legitimacy if he can deliver: China’s fans are famously passionate yet frustrated. You can see that in the memes, with folks now cheering instead for China’s World Cup ref, Ma ‘Card Master’ Ning (so-named for his love of red cards).

5. 🇮🇶 Iraq

Let’s maybe end on a hopeful note giving strong Little Miss Sunshine energy (if the VW Kombi were an armoured convoy and the children’s beauty pageant was a World Cup).

Underdog Iraq almost missed out because, when the Iran war broke out next door, flights got grounded and the team couldn’t make a crucial qualifier against Bolivia in Mexico! So with a postponement off the table, the players did a brutal 15-hour road trip to Jordan where FIFA then chartered them a private jet! Iraq eventually scraped through, 2-1.

So if Hollywood is any guide, then sure, Iraq might not lift the trophy in July, but damn it — they made it to the starting line. And sometimes that’s the real victory.

Sound even smarter:

• Morocco, Portugal, and Spain will co-host the next World Cup in 2030, before handing the reins to Saudi Arabia for 2034.