Is NATO back?

Forget the usual joint communiqués and family photos. This year’s NATO summit in Ankara might’ve just hit peak “it’s complicated”. Here are 4 reasons why, starting with…

1. "It’s a great plane, it’s the best, currently the best plane by far and it’s certainly something we will consider.” - 🇺🇸 President Trump

Which plane? Not the Spruce Moose, but Lockheed Martin's F-35. And Trump issued that praise above while standing with Turkey's Erdogan, suggesting the US president could consider green-lighting F-35 sales to Turkey.

Why so spicy? It was actually Trump 1.0 who ousted Turkey from the F-35 program back in 2019, after the Turks ignored US warnings about buying Russia's S-400 air defences — there were fears Turkey’s S-400s could scan and map the F-35’s stealth profile for Moscow.

So… is Trump lifting his own ban because Turkey ditched its S-400s? Lol no.

He suggests it's about rewarding Turkey's — and Erdogan's — loyalty. Or if you want to read any strategy onto this, it might be a way to pull polyamorous Turkey westward, or throw shade at less-loyal Europe (though Turkey likewise curbed US basing against Iran).

Anyway, whatever the rationale, F-35 sales to Turkey would mean new drama with...

• Congress, which holds the keys and has bi-partisanly objected until Turkey both ditches its S-400s and plays nicer with...

• Israel, which views the sale as a direct threat to its own F-35 edge over a region that still only partly recognises its right to exist.

And of course, fellow NATO member (and Turkey rival) Greece is also peeved.

So then... why doesn't Turkey just ditch its S-400s, which have proven pretty weak-sauce for Russia? Well Turkey likes options (hence 'polyamorous' above), and there are rumours of some kind of loophole, like quietly transferring its S-400s to a third country. Plus Ukraine has been a vivid ad for the risks of relying on the US for air defence.

Speaking of which...

2. "This is Russia's last major advantage. Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require.” - 🇺🇦 President Zelensky

Ukraine’s Zelensky has arrived at this year's summit in a much stronger position: his long-range strikes (now on Russia's largest refinery) have triggered worsening gas queues, while the frontline barely moves — Putin just claimed a Donbas town, but we’ve seen this movie before: he also claimed Chasiv Yar last year and is still there bleeding troops today!

So with things curdling, Putin is now leaning into his one last advantage, which involves long-range missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in hopes folks will lose their will to defend. Zelensky pays for US air defences but production isn’t keeping up, so he’s asking for licensing to make more interceptors locally in Europe.

No word yet on Trump's response, but here's NATO's response to President Trump...

3. “NATO 3.0 is rising — and buying American.” - Mark Rutte

That’s NATO's chief (and former Dutch PM) in an opinion piece, arguing Europe is finally heeding years of US (particularly Trump) pressure for a stronger, more balanced alliance.

And by way of proof, allies have used this summit to announce $50B in new arms, but the sharpest proof might actually be NATO’s new Defence, Security & Resilience Bank. After months of rumours, eight nations have now joined Canada as founding members: Latvia, Luxembourg, Turkey, Albania, Belgium, Greece, and Romania, plus Ukraine.

The new bank aims to mobilise $130B in private capital to help turn NATO’s lofty spending pledges into actual production, while Ukraine's membership looks both practical (drone leadership) and symbolic (absent actual NATO membership).

4. "The Americans, we have heard them loud and clear: take more responsibility of your own defence." - 🇫🇮 President Stubb

Finland's well-groomed leader says the US message has been loud and clear, but the formal notification of a US planning drawdown across Europe actually came quietly back in May, when the Pentagon notified allies of a 5,000 cut to US troops, a one-third drop in US fighter jets, and a 42% drop in maritime reconnaissance aircraft!

It's about the US reprioritising towards China the Indo-Pacific, but the challenge is not emboldening an expansionist Russia in the process. Europe is racing to plug many of the gaps, but the reality is several US gaps are currently irreplaceable: think long-range strikes, aerial refuelling, and high-end ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance).

And if NATO's conventional deterrent gets weaker, the alliance realistically has to lean more on its nuclear deterrent. And absent full faith in US commitments, that realistically means more emphasis on French and British nukes as Europe's ultimate insurance policy.

Sound even smarter:

• One of those US gaps we flagged above relates to deep precision strike capabilities. And in breaking news, the UK has just announced a new $50B 10-year program with a dozen NATO members to level up Europe’s arsenal.

• As Putin’s fuel crisis continues, his government bond yields have spiked 200 basis points in a month, while Moscow’s benchmark MOEX is down 13%.