Will Bibi survive?

Welcome to Intrigue’s big election week: day 2. 

Now it’s Israel’s turn, as folks today (Tuesday) cast their first votes since the Hamas October 7th attacks and ensuing wars across Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

First, the incumbent: Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu has been centre-stage for decades in a journey that’s taken him from elite Sayeret Matkal commando and MIT grad to BCG consultant and even Israel’s 1980s-era ambassador to the UN.

But the Bibi now seeking a seventh term as PM is also the guy with…

• Three active corruption indictments

• Israel’s worst security and intel failure on his watch (Oct 7th), and now…

• ICC warrants (plus Israel’s ICJ genocide case) over his Gaza response!

So how’s he in contention? His base still sees Bibi as the only guy to finish the fight with foes still seeking Israel’s demise: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran.

Plus to survive, Bibi has often just kept that base loyal amid Israel’s divided opposition.

But you know what? Israel’s opposition now seems a little more united thanks to…

Second, the challenger: with semi-thanks to Netanyahu himself and the anyone but Bibi mood he’s inspired, opposition has now coalesced around Gadi Eisenkot.

A former military chief-of-staff, Eisenkot sits atop a bloc of four centrist parties and can match Bibi’s natsec cred: he lost his own son and nephew in Gaza, while Bibi’s son faced criticism for spending the war poolside in Miami.

Eisenkot was also in Israel’s initial wartime security cabinet, and has broadly backed Israel’s actions across Gaza, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Iran. So he’s no dove.

In fact, he’s widely seen as the 2008 architect of Israel’s controversial Dahiyeh doctrine, named after the Hezbollah stronghold where he advocated for “disproportionate force” against civilian areas used in attacks.

Eisenkot eventually left Bibi’s cabinet over a lack of hostage-dealing and post-war strategy, going on to warn that regime change in Iran is “not an achievable goal”.

But really, his pitch comes down to “I’m as tough as Bibi, just without the courtroom drama, hard-right allies, or October 7th hubris.”

And while polls suggest Eisenkot’s opposition might end up with ~55 seats (versus ~50 for Bibi’s coalition), the general would still fall short of a magic 61 majority.

So that means the keys to the PM’s office will once again lie in the hands of…

Third, the kingmakers.

With most of Israel’s smaller parties already picking a side, the winner might need…

• Micro-parties: to enter the Knesset, parties must clear a 3.25% vote hurdle (earning a minimum of four seats), with several pro-Bibi micro-parties now teetering on the edge — clear it and Bibi survives, but fall short (like his hard-right ally Smotrich risks doing) and Bibi’s coalition math soon collapses.

Still with us?

And of course, everything’s re-negotiable once you’ve actually won seats and have leverage: that in-fighting has toppled more than one Israeli coalition government.

So then there’s…

• The Arab-majority parties: representing Israel’s ~20% Arab minority, The Joint List and Ra’am are on track for ~14 seats. And while they’re rarely invited into ruling coalitions, high Arab turnout can raise (in raw votes) that 3.25% hurdle for the pro-Bibi micro-parties, making it harder for Bibi to survive.

Which gets us to…

Fourth, the strategies.

In a hung parliament, the incumbent (Bibi) keeps the upper hand, either to negotiate a coalition or continue as caretaker PM, even until the next elections!

That’s presumably why Bibi is trying to make cooperation with the Arab-majority parties politically toxic (even though Bibi himself first broke that taboo in 2021), warning an Arab-backed government would usher in a Palestinian state.

Of course, that line also just risks firing up Arab-Israeli turnout even more, but either way, it puts hawkish Eisenkot in a brutal bind: partner with Arab-Israelis to oust Bibi but face a conservative revolt, or refuse but risk the gridlock that still leaves Bibi at the helm.

So how’s Eisenkot responding? By keeping his options open: first, declaring “I will sit with anyone who believes … that Israel is a Jewish and democratic state.”

And second, by appealing to a broader Jewish base with pledges to end ultra-orthodox exemptions, and investigate October 7th (something Bibi has avoided).

All that to say… maybe the road back to the PM’s office doesn’t run through the front-runners anymore.

The major Israeli networks will start publishing exit polls as booths close from 10pm Tuesday local time, with preliminary tallies emerging Wednesday morning.

Sound even smarter:

• Nearly 70,000 Israeli expats have returned to vote, per one estimate. 

• Netanyahu became Israel’s longest-serving PM in 2019 when he passed the record of modern Israel’s founding father and first PM, David Ben-Gurion.

• Recent Pew and Gallup polling suggests American public favourability towards Israel generally and Netanyahu specifically has fallen to historic lows.