Colombia’s massive election upset

Shifting tides.

Nobody likes a told-you-so but (and brace yourself) we copped some angry strays when our 2026 prediction edition flagged that "Colombia’s hard-right firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella will crush Colombia’s May–June elections, capitalising on public fatigue".

We've dutifully kept you posted on the polls saying otherwise, but (sorry) we told you! So let's look at five key takeaways from Sunday's massive first-round upset, starting with...

1. The upset is real.

Abelardo de la Espriella, aka 'El Tigre' (The Tiger), is a celebrity lawyer with zero elected office experience. So his finish in first place (44%) is not just a shock to Colombia's incumbent left (41%), but also its establishment right (7%).

How? El Tigre can partly thank an establishment-right campaign that fizzled harder than a crisp can of Colombiana, leaving him as the only real option against the incumbent left.

He can also thank his years of chasing the spotlight via a famously aggressive style of litigation and rhetoric, hence that 'Tigre' nickname.

But he can also thank...

2. Security is the killer.

The outgoing president (Petro, who’s termed out) became Colombia's first leftist (and ex-guerrilla!) to win power in 2022, pledging 'total peace' via social programs and talks rather than endless fighting against the country’s armed groups.

But after four years, those groups have ~doubled in size, homicides just hit their worst quarter in a decade, and resurgent FARC/ELN splinters have displaced communities.

So with a sluggish economy and a sense armed groups were only getting stronger while the government just talked, voters wanted mano dura, and El Tigre was only too happy to oblige, aboard the...

3. Populist wave.

For a world that loves to distil humanity’s full complexity into a left-right binary, the "LatAm lurches right" headlines will write themselves here.

But for us, the left-right pendulum has increasingly looked like mere weather, while it’s populism that’s really been the bigger climate change story: whether left or right, voters are craving simple and decisive answers in an increasingly messy world.

That was true in 2022 when Petro pledged 'total peace' as the simple answer to decades of conflict, and it’s true with El Tigre instead pledging to now ‘stand firm for the homeland’. But…

4. The hard part starts now.

It's barely a month since President Petro's designated leftist successor (Senator Cepeda) was polling higher than the right's two candidates combined! But El Tigre, uniting the right, now seems the clear favourite for June 21st's run-off against Cepeda.

And yet, the road ahead also looks rough: President Petro has just declared, "I do not accept the results of the pre-count", blaming (without evidence) mystery new voters.

Then even if Petro changes his tune, El Tigre is still in for a rough ride: his party has one lawmaker in the house (out of 183!) and four in the senate (out of ~103!). So he's going to need some epic coalition-building and horse-trading to cash all the checks he's been writing, like pledging Bukele-style mega prisons and a Milei-style 40% cut in the state!

And yet…

5. Markets smell victory 

As Monday’s sun rises over Colombia, watch for a stronger peso, easing bond yields, and a bounce in the COLCAP index — that's investors (agree or not) breathing a sigh of relief at the notion of a more business-friendly, pro-US, lower-tax-and-spend Bogotá ahead.

And investors might (like El Tigre himself) be taking some inspiration from the first leader to publicly congratulate El Tigre: Argentina’s right-libertarian Javier Milei likewise rode to power on a populist wave with minimal legislators, but he’s still reshaped his country.

Sound even smarter:

• El Tigre has a record of filing aggressive defamation suits against journalists who criticise him — a trait that thrills his fans and alarms his critics.

• The 52-year-old father of four has defended colourful characters in the courtroom, including Alex Saab, Maduro’s money man now in a US cell. He spins that experience as knowing how the system works. Sound familiar?